NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE
Charlotte Motor Speedway, September 28, 2019
A.J. Allmendinger
Winner
67
Laps
38
Entries
6
Leaders
A.J. Allmendinger won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE at Charlotte Motor Speedway on September 28, 2019, leading 20 of 67 laps. Tyler Reddick finished second; Austin Cindric rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 28, 2019
Track
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 2 | 2 | — | Tyler Reddick |
| 3 | 3 | — | Austin Cindric |
| 4 | 7 | +3 | Justin Allgaier |
| 5 | 12 | +7 | Noah Gragson |
| 6 | 6 | — | Alex Labbe |
| 7 | 14 | +7 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 8 | 4 | -4 | Cole Custer |
| 9 | 1 | -8 | Chase Briscoe |
| 10 | 13 | +3 | Ryan Truex |
| 11 | 8 | -3 | Jeremy Clements |
| 12 | 11 | -1 | Christopher Bell |
| 13 | 22 | +9 | Harrison Burton |
| 14 | 19 | +5 | Lawson Aschenbach |
| 15 | 23 | +8 | Michael Annett |
| 16 | 15 | -1 | Brandon Jones |
| 17 | 35 | +18 | Brandon Brown |
| 18 | 21 | +3 | Timmy Hill |
| 19 | 26 | +7 | Stephen Leicht |
| 20 | 20 | — | Josh Williams |
| 21 | 33 | +12 | Joey Gase |
| 22 | 30 | +8 | Joe Nemechek |
| 23 | 34 | +11 | B.J. McLeod |
| 24 | 32 | +8 | Cody Ware |
| 25 | 36 | +11 | Vinnie Miller |
| 26 | 28 | +2 | Josh Bilicki |
| 27 | 16 | -11 | Preston Pardus |
| 28 | 10 | -18 | Will Rodgers |
| 29 | 17 | -12 | Gray Gaulding |
| 30 | 25 | -5 | Ryan Sieg |
| 31 | 9 | -22 | Justin Haley |
| 32 | 24 | -8 | Ray Black, Jr. |
| 33 | 27 | -6 | Garrett Smithley |
| 34 | 31 | -3 | David Starr |
| 35 | 18 | -17 | Tommy Joe Martins |
| 36 | 37 | +1 | Chad Finchum |
| 37 | 38 | +1 | Bayley Currey |
| 38 | 29 | -9 | J.J. Yeley |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 19 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A.J. Allmendinger | 17.1 | 1 | +16.1 |
| 2 | Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 2 | +9.2 |
| 3 | Austin Cindric | 15.4 | 3 | +12.4 |
| 4 | Justin Allgaier | 17.1 | 4 | +13.1 |
| 5 | Noah Gragson | 22.9 | 5 | +17.9 |
| 7 | John Hunter Nemechek | 18.3 | 7 | +11.3 |
| 8 | Cole Custer | 22.0 | 8 | +14.0 |
| 9 | Chase Briscoe | 7.8 | 9 | -1.2 |
| 10 | Ryan Truex | 16.9 | 10 | +6.9 |
| 12 | Christopher Bell | 9.2 | 12 | -2.8 |
| 18 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 18 | +5.9 |
| 21 | Joey Gase | 22.9 | 21 | +1.9 |
| 23 | B.J. McLeod | 24.7 | 23 | +1.7 |
| 24 | Cody Ware | 57.0 | 24 | +33.0 |
| 26 | Josh Bilicki | 26.1 | 26 | +0.1 |
| 31 | Justin Haley | 20.9 | 31 | -10.1 |
| 34 | David Starr | 21.0 | 34 | -13.0 |
| 36 | Chad Finchum | 28.2 | 36 | -7.8 |
| 38 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 38 | -9.4 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- A.J. Allmendinger: has 27 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 17.8 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Briscoe: was the model’s top pick based on 15 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 15.1 avg finish (1 win), finishing P9 on the day.
- Cody Ware: was the biggest surprise, finishing P24 vs predicted P57. Track history: 9 starts, 25.3 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE?
A.J. Allmendinger won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE held?
The 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE was held at Charlotte Motor Speedway on September 28, 2019.