NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE

Charlotte Motor Speedway — September 28, 2019

A.J. Allmendinger
Winner
67
Laps
38
Entries
6
Leaders

A.J. Allmendinger won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE at Charlotte Motor Speedway on September 28, 2019, leading 20 of 67 laps. Tyler Reddick finished second; Austin Cindric rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 28, 2019
Season
2019
Leaders
6 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 5 +4 A.J. Allmendinger
2 2 Tyler Reddick
3 3 Austin Cindric
4 7 +3 Justin Allgaier
5 12 +7 Noah Gragson
6 6 Alex Labbe
7 14 +7 John Hunter Nemechek
8 4 -4 Cole Custer
9 1 -8 Chase Briscoe
10 13 +3 Ryan Truex
11 8 -3 Jeremy Clements
12 11 -1 Christopher Bell
13 22 +9 Harrison Burton
14 19 +5 Lawson Aschenbach
15 23 +8 Michael Annett
16 15 -1 Brandon Jones
17 35 +18 Brandon Brown
18 21 +3 Timmy Hill
19 26 +7 Stephen Leicht
20 20 Josh Williams
21 33 +12 Joey Gase
22 30 +8 Joe Nemechek
23 34 +11 B.J. McLeod
24 32 +8 Cody Ware
25 36 +11 Vinnie Miller
26 28 +2 Josh Bilicki
27 16 -11 Preston Pardus
28 10 -18 Will Rodgers
29 17 -12 Gray Gaulding
30 25 -5 Ryan Sieg
31 9 -22 Justin Haley
32 24 -8 Ray Black, Jr.
33 27 -6 Garrett Smithley
34 31 -3 David Starr
35 18 -17 Tommy Joe Martins
36 37 +1 Chad Finchum
37 38 +1 Bayley Currey
38 29 -9 J.J. Yeley
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 19 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 A.J. Allmendinger 18.3 1 +17.3
2 Tyler Reddick 6.2 2 +4.2
3 Austin Cindric 15.4 3 +12.4
4 Justin Allgaier 18.3 4 +14.3
5 Noah Gragson 21.4 5 +16.4
7 John Hunter Nemechek 19.1 7 +12.1
8 Cole Custer 22.9 8 +14.9
9 Chase Briscoe 11.9 9 +2.9
10 Ryan Truex 15.4 10 +5.4
12 Christopher Bell 10.7 12 -1.3
18 Timmy Hill 23.9 18 +5.9
21 Joey Gase 23.4 21 +2.4
23 B.J. McLeod 24.8 23 +1.8
24 Cody Ware 56.1 24 +32.1
26 Josh Bilicki 28.6 26 +2.6
31 Justin Haley 19.9 31 -11.1
34 David Starr 20.9 34 -13.1
36 Chad Finchum 26.4 36 -9.6
38 J.J. Yeley 28.8 38 -9.2

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • A.J. Allmendinger: has 27 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 17.9 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 15 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 7.7 avg finish (1 win), finishing P2 on the day.
  • Cody Ware: was the biggest surprise, finishing P24 vs predicted P56. Track history: 8 starts, 23.0 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE?
A.J. Allmendinger won the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE held?
The 2019 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT CHARLOTTE was held at Charlotte Motor Speedway on September 28, 2019.