Daytona 500

Daytona International Speedway — February 16, 2020

Denny Hamlin
Winner
209
Laps
26
Entries
13
Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2020 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 16, 2020, leading 79 of 209 laps. Ryan Blaney finished second; Chris Buescher rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, February 16, 2020
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
13 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 21 +20 Denny Hamlin
2 27 +25 Ryan Blaney
3 19 +16 Chris Buescher
4 30 +26 David Ragan
5 10 +5 Kevin Harvick
6 29 +23 Clint Bowyer
7 39 +32 Brendan Gaughan
8 36 +28 Corey LaJoie
9 7 -2 Ryan Newman
10 8 -2 Kyle Larson
11 23 +12 John Hunter Nemechek
12 13 +1 Austin Dillon
13 33 +20 Justin Haley
14 26 +12 Michael McDowell
15 11 -4 Bubba Wallace
16 34 +18 Brennan Poole
17 25 +8 Chase Elliott
18 14 -4 Erik Jones
19 16 -3 Matt DiBenedetto
20 1 -19 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
22 5 -17 Aric Almirola
24 2 -22 Alex Bowman
26 3 -23 Joey Logano
34 28 -6 Kyle Busch
35 6 -29 Jimmie Johnson
36 9 -27 Brad Keselowski
Stage Results
Driver Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage Pts
Chase Elliott 1 7 14
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 7 3 12
Jimmie Johnson 5 6 11
Denny Hamlin 18 1 10
Alex Bowman 2 15 9
Joey Logano 4 9 9
Kyle Busch 35 2 9
Ryan Blaney 6 8 8
Aric Almirola 3 29 8
Chris Buescher 9 10 3
Matt DiBenedetto 8 18 3
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 19 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Denny Hamlin 16.0 1 +15.0
2 Ryan Blaney 13.9 2 +11.9
3 Chris Buescher 13.6 3 +10.6
8 Corey LaJoie 23.3 8 +15.3
10 Kyle Larson 18.5 10 +8.5
11 John Hunter Nemechek 20.5 11 +9.5
12 Austin Dillon 23.4 12 +11.4
13 Justin Haley 23.4 13 +10.4
14 Michael McDowell 20.0 14 +6.0
15 Bubba Wallace 16.0 15 +1.0
16 Brennan Poole 25.2 16 +9.2
17 Chase Elliott 10.4 17 -6.6
18 Erik Jones 18.5 18 +0.5
20 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 18.5 20 -1.5
24 Alex Bowman 15.1 24 -8.9
26 Joey Logano 20.5 26 -5.5
34 Kyle Busch 15.1 34 -18.9
35 Jimmie Johnson 18.9 35 -16.1
36 Brad Keselowski 16.0 36 -20.0

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Denny Hamlin: has 48 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.1 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 30 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 15.9 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P17 on the day.
  • Corey LaJoie: was the biggest surprise, finishing P8 vs predicted P23. Track history: 22 starts, 19.1 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2020 Daytona 500?
Denny Hamlin won the 2020 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2020 Daytona 500 held?
The 2020 Daytona 500 was held at Daytona International Speedway on February 16, 2020.