Daytona 500
Daytona International Speedway, February 16, 2020
Denny Hamlin
Winner
209
Laps
40
Entries
13
Leaders
Denny Hamlin won the 2020 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 16, 2020, leading 79 of 209 laps. Ryan Blaney finished second; Chris Buescher rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, February 16, 2020
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
13 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | +20 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 27 | +25 | Ryan Blaney |
| 3 | 19 | +16 | Chris Buescher |
| 4 | 30 | +26 | David Ragan |
| 5 | 10 | +5 | Kevin Harvick |
| 6 | 29 | +23 | Clint Bowyer |
| 7 | 39 | +32 | Brendan Gaughan |
| 8 | 36 | +28 | Corey LaJoie |
| 9 | 7 | -2 | Ryan Newman |
| 10 | 8 | -2 | Kyle Larson |
| 11 | 23 | +12 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 12 | 13 | +1 | Austin Dillon |
| 13 | 33 | +20 | Justin Haley |
| 14 | 26 | +12 | Michael McDowell |
| 15 | 11 | -4 | Bubba Wallace |
| 16 | 34 | +18 | Brennan Poole |
| 17 | 25 | +8 | Chase Elliott |
| 18 | 14 | -4 | Erik Jones |
| 19 | 16 | -3 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 20 | 1 | -19 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 21 | 17 | -4 | Christopher Bell |
| 22 | 5 | -17 | Aric Almirola |
| 23 | 37 | +14 | Joey Gase |
| 24 | 2 | -22 | Alex Bowman |
| 25 | 20 | -5 | Ross Chastain |
| 26 | 3 | -23 | Joey Logano |
| 27 | 32 | +5 | Timmy Hill |
| 28 | 22 | -6 | Tyler Reddick |
| 29 | 31 | +2 | Ryan Preece |
| 30 | 24 | -6 | Ty Dillon |
| 31 | 40 | +9 | Reed Sorenson |
| 32 | 15 | -17 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 33 | 18 | -15 | Kurt Busch |
| 34 | 28 | -6 | Kyle Busch |
| 35 | 6 | -29 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 36 | 9 | -27 | Brad Keselowski |
| 37 | 12 | -25 | Cole Custer |
| 38 | 38 | — | B.J. McLeod |
| 39 | 35 | -4 | Quin Houff |
| 40 | 4 | -36 | William Byron |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 1 | 7 | — | 14 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 7 | 3 | — | 12 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 5 | 6 | — | 11 |
| Denny Hamlin | — | 1 | — | 10 |
| Alex Bowman | 2 | — | — | 9 |
| Joey Logano | 4 | 9 | — | 9 |
| Kyle Busch | — | 2 | — | 9 |
| Ryan Blaney | 6 | 8 | — | 8 |
| Aric Almirola | 3 | — | — | 8 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | 4 | — | 7 |
| Chris Buescher | 9 | 10 | — | 3 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 8 | — | — | 3 |
| Ty Dillon | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| David Ragan | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Harvick | — | — | — | — |
| Clint Bowyer | — | — | — | — |
| Brendan Gaughan | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Larson | — | — | — | — |
| John Hunter Nemechek | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Brennan Poole | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Bell | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | 5 | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Reddick | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Reed Sorenson | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Brad Keselowski | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| William Byron | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 29 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 15.1 | 1 | +14.1 |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | 10.4 | 2 | +8.4 |
| 3 | Chris Buescher | 13.6 | 3 | +10.6 |
| 8 | Corey LaJoie | 23.3 | 8 | +15.3 |
| 10 | Kyle Larson | 20.1 | 10 | +10.1 |
| 11 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20.5 | 11 | +9.5 |
| 12 | Austin Dillon | 21.1 | 12 | +9.1 |
| 13 | Justin Haley | 23.4 | 13 | +10.4 |
| 14 | Michael McDowell | 19.2 | 14 | +5.2 |
| 15 | Bubba Wallace | 16.9 | 15 | +1.9 |
| 16 | Brennan Poole | 24.0 | 16 | +8.0 |
| 17 | Chase Elliott | 13.6 | 17 | -3.4 |
| 18 | Erik Jones | 16.0 | 18 | -2.0 |
| 20 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18.5 | 20 | -1.5 |
| 21 | Christopher Bell | 15.1 | 21 | -5.9 |
| 23 | Joey Gase | 23.7 | 23 | +0.7 |
| 24 | Alex Bowman | 17.4 | 24 | -6.6 |
| 25 | Ross Chastain | 16.0 | 25 | -9.0 |
| 26 | Joey Logano | 18.5 | 26 | -7.5 |
| 27 | Timmy Hill | 22.8 | 27 | -4.2 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin: has 50 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 18.0 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 26 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 16.5 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
- Corey LaJoie: was the biggest surprise, finishing P8 vs predicted P23. Track history: 22 starts, 20.0 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 Daytona 500?
Denny Hamlin won the 2020 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2020 Daytona 500 held?
The 2020 Daytona 500 was held at Daytona International Speedway on February 16, 2020.