NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT RICHMOND
Richmond Raceway — September 12, 2020
Justin Allgaier
Winner
250
Laps
36
Entries
6
Leaders
Justin Allgaier won the 2020 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT RICHMOND at Richmond Raceway on September 12, 2020, leading 135 of 250 laps. Jeb Burton finished second; Ross Chastain rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 12, 2020
Track
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | +13 | Justin Allgaier |
| 2 | 21 | +19 | Jeb Burton |
| 3 | 11 | +8 | Ross Chastain |
| 4 | 15 | +11 | Harrison Burton |
| 5 | 8 | +3 | Noah Gragson |
| 6 | 13 | +7 | Justin Haley |
| 7 | 9 | +2 | Michael Annett |
| 8 | 2 | -6 | Brandon Jones |
| 9 | 7 | -2 | Kaz Grala |
| 10 | 12 | +2 | Austin Cindric |
| 11 | 16 | +5 | Brandon Brown |
| 12 | 20 | +8 | Alex Labbe |
| 13 | 3 | -10 | Matt Mills |
| 14 | 23 | +9 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 15 | 4 | -11 | Ryan Sieg |
| 16 | 5 | -11 | Chase Briscoe |
| 17 | 17 | — | Jeremy Clements |
| 18 | 10 | -8 | Brett Moffitt |
| 19 | 25 | +6 | Bayley Currey |
| 20 | 30 | +10 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 21 | 28 | +7 | Mason Massey |
| 22 | 35 | +13 | Stephen Leicht |
| 23 | 18 | -5 | Joey Gase |
| 24 | 26 | +2 | B.J. McLeod |
| 25 | 19 | -6 | Josh Williams |
| 26 | 1 | -25 | Tommy Joe Martins |
| 27 | 22 | -5 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 28 | 33 | +5 | Chad Finchum |
| 29 | 32 | +3 | Kody Vanderwal |
| 30 | 31 | +1 | Dexter Bean |
| 31 | 27 | -4 | Myatt Snider |
| 32 | 34 | +2 | Vinnie Miller |
| 33 | 24 | -9 | Jesse Little |
| 34 | 6 | -28 | Riley Herbst |
| 35 | 29 | -6 | Colby Howard |
| 36 | 36 | — | Timmy Hill |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 11 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Allgaier | 17.7 | 1 | +16.7 |
| 3 | Ross Chastain | 13.8 | 3 | +10.8 |
| 5 | Noah Gragson | 23.0 | 5 | +18.0 |
| 6 | Justin Haley | 21.2 | 6 | +15.2 |
| 10 | Austin Cindric | 17.0 | 10 | +7.0 |
| 16 | Chase Briscoe | 12.6 | 16 | -3.4 |
| 23 | Joey Gase | 22.0 | 23 | -1.0 |
| 24 | B.J. McLeod | 25.6 | 24 | +1.6 |
| 28 | Chad Finchum | 22.1 | 28 | -5.9 |
| 34 | Riley Herbst | 22.1 | 34 | -11.9 |
| 36 | Timmy Hill | 24.3 | 36 | -11.7 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Justin Allgaier: has 8 career starts at Richmond Raceway with a 11.3 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Briscoe: was the model’s top pick based on 11 career starts at Richmond Raceway with a 18.5 avg finish, finishing P16 on the day.
- Noah Gragson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P23. Track history: 10 starts, 17.4 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT RICHMOND?
Justin Allgaier won the 2020 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT RICHMOND at Richmond Raceway.
Where was the 2020 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT RICHMOND held?
The 2020 NASCAR XFINITY SERIES AT RICHMOND was held at Richmond Raceway on September 12, 2020.