Cook Out Southern 500
Darlington Raceway, September 5, 2021
Denny Hamlin
Winner
367
Laps
37
Entries
10
Leaders
Denny Hamlin won the 2021 Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway on September 5, 2021, leading 146 of 367 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Ross Chastain rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 5, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
10 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +1 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 6 | +4 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 23 | +20 | Ross Chastain |
| 4 | 10 | +6 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 5 | 9 | +4 | Kevin Harvick |
| 6 | 3 | -3 | Kurt Busch |
| 7 | 16 | +9 | Brad Keselowski |
| 8 | 11 | +3 | Joey Logano |
| 9 | 34 | +25 | Chris Buescher |
| 10 | 21 | +11 | Austin Dillon |
| 11 | 31 | +20 | Cole Custer |
| 12 | 18 | +6 | Ryan Preece |
| 13 | 26 | +13 | Daniel Suarez |
| 14 | 19 | +5 | Ryan Newman |
| 15 | 25 | +10 | Corey LaJoie |
| 16 | 8 | -8 | Aric Almirola |
| 17 | 29 | +12 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 18 | 7 | -11 | Tyler Reddick |
| 19 | 24 | +5 | Chase Briscoe |
| 20 | 13 | -7 | Christopher Bell |
| 21 | 17 | -4 | Bubba Wallace |
| 22 | 1 | -21 | Ryan Blaney |
| 23 | 30 | +7 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 24 | 32 | +8 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 25 | 20 | -5 | Justin Haley |
| 26 | 5 | -21 | Alex Bowman |
| 27 | 27 | — | B.J. McLeod |
| 28 | 28 | — | Josh Bilicki |
| 29 | 35 | +6 | Joey Gase |
| 30 | 37 | +7 | Quin Houff |
| 31 | 4 | -27 | Chase Elliott |
| 32 | 22 | -10 | Erik Jones |
| 33 | 33 | — | Cody Ware |
| 34 | 14 | -20 | William Byron |
| 35 | 12 | -23 | Kyle Busch |
| 36 | 36 | — | James Davison |
| 37 | 15 | -22 | Michael McDowell |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 2 | 1 | — | 19 |
| Denny Hamlin | 1 | 4 | — | 17 |
| Kurt Busch | 3 | 6 | — | 13 |
| Kevin Harvick | 5 | 5 | — | 12 |
| Ross Chastain | 9 | 3 | — | 10 |
| Christopher Bell | — | 2 | — | 9 |
| Ryan Blaney | 4 | 9 | — | 9 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 6 | — | — | 5 |
| Joey Logano | 10 | 7 | — | 5 |
| Tyler Reddick | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Aric Almirola | 8 | — | — | 3 |
| Chase Elliott | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Corey LaJoie | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Brad Keselowski | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Briscoe | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| William Byron | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
| James Davison | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 29 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 6.2 | 1 | +5.2 |
| 2 | Kyle Larson | 13.1 | 2 | +11.1 |
| 3 | Ross Chastain | 14.5 | 3 | +11.5 |
| 4 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 4 | +11.4 |
| 7 | Brad Keselowski | 15.4 | 7 | +8.4 |
| 8 | Joey Logano | 11.9 | 8 | +3.9 |
| 9 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 9 | +0.2 |
| 10 | Austin Dillon | 19.9 | 10 | +9.9 |
| 11 | Cole Custer | 22.0 | 11 | +11.0 |
| 12 | Ryan Preece | 13.3 | 12 | +1.3 |
| 13 | Daniel Suarez | 12.7 | 13 | -0.3 |
| 15 | Corey LaJoie | 22.2 | 15 | +7.2 |
| 17 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 17 | +2.9 |
| 18 | Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 18 | -6.8 |
| 19 | Chase Briscoe | 7.8 | 19 | -11.2 |
| 20 | Christopher Bell | 9.2 | 20 | -10.8 |
| 21 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 21 | -8.3 |
| 22 | Ryan Blaney | 8.2 | 22 | -13.8 |
| 24 | Anthony Alfredo | 21.4 | 24 | -2.6 |
| 25 | Justin Haley | 20.9 | 25 | -4.1 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin: has 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.5 avg finish (10 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
- Cody Ware: was the biggest surprise, finishing P33 vs predicted P57. Track history: 9 starts, 31.0 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 Cook Out Southern 500?
Denny Hamlin won the 2021 Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2021 Cook Out Southern 500 held?
The 2021 Cook Out Southern 500 was held at Darlington Raceway on September 5, 2021.