FireKeepers Casino 400
Michigan International Speedway — August 22, 2021
Ryan Blaney
Winner
200
Laps
21
Entries
11
Leaders
Ryan Blaney won the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway on August 22, 2021, leading 8 of 200 laps. William Byron finished second; Kyle Larson rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, August 22, 2021
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
11 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +3 | Ryan Blaney |
| 2 | 10 | +8 | William Byron |
| 3 | 5 | +2 | Kyle Larson |
| 4 | 14 | +10 | Kurt Busch |
| 5 | 1 | -4 | Denny Hamlin |
| 6 | 15 | +9 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 7 | 2 | -5 | Kyle Busch |
| 8 | 3 | -5 | Chase Elliott |
| 9 | 7 | -2 | Brad Keselowski |
| 10 | 6 | -4 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 11 | 17 | +6 | Chase Briscoe |
| 12 | 21 | +9 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 13 | 12 | -1 | Christopher Bell |
| 14 | 9 | -5 | Kevin Harvick |
| 15 | 24 | +9 | Chris Buescher |
| 16 | 11 | -5 | Alex Bowman |
| 17 | 20 | +3 | Aric Almirola |
| 18 | 26 | +8 | Erik Jones |
| 19 | 19 | — | Bubba Wallace |
| 20 | 22 | +2 | Michael McDowell |
| 36 | 16 | -20 | Austin Dillon |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Keselowski | 3 | 2 | — | 17 |
| Chris Buescher | 1 | 6 | — | 15 |
| Kevin Harvick | 4 | 8 | — | 10 |
| Bubba Wallace | 16 | 1 | — | 10 |
| Kurt Busch | 9 | 4 | — | 9 |
| Christopher Bell | 17 | 5 | — | 6 |
| Ryan Blaney | 6 | 15 | — | 5 |
| Denny Hamlin | 27 | 7 | — | 4 |
| Chase Elliott | 7 | 18 | — | 4 |
| Erik Jones | 24 | 9 | — | 2 |
| Alex Bowman | 10 | 38 | — | 1 |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 5.7 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 1 | +8.2 |
| 2 | William Byron | 10.7 | 2 | +8.7 |
| 3 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 3 | +9.7 |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 5 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 7 | +10.0 |
| 8 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 8 | -0.2 |
| 9 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 9 | +2.2 |
| 10 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 10 | +5.4 |
| 11 | Chase Briscoe | 11.9 | 11 | +0.9 |
| 12 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 12 | +7.9 |
| 13 | Christopher Bell | 10.7 | 13 | -2.3 |
| 15 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 15 | -5.8 |
| 16 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 16 | -2.5 |
| 18 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 18 | -1.3 |
| 19 | Bubba Wallace | 12.7 | 19 | -6.3 |
| 20 | Michael McDowell | 17.0 | 20 | -3.0 |
| 36 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 36 | -18.9 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Ryan Blaney: has 21 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 16.6 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 17 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish, finishing P8 on the day.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400?
Ryan Blaney won the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway driving for Team Penske.
Where was the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 held?
The 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 was held at Michigan International Speedway on August 22, 2021.