YellaWood 500
Talladega Superspeedway, October 4, 2021
Bubba Wallace
Winner
117
Laps
40
Entries
19
Leaders
Bubba Wallace won the 2021 YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on October 4, 2021, leading 5 of 117 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 19 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Monday, October 4, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
19 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | +18 | Bubba Wallace |
| 2 | 7 | +5 | Brad Keselowski |
| 3 | 8 | +5 | Joey Logano |
| 4 | 14 | +10 | Kurt Busch |
| 5 | 12 | +7 | Christopher Bell |
| 6 | 24 | +18 | Chris Buescher |
| 7 | 1 | -6 | Denny Hamlin |
| 8 | 9 | +1 | Kevin Harvick |
| 9 | 26 | +17 | Erik Jones |
| 10 | 30 | +20 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 11 | 16 | +5 | Austin Dillon |
| 12 | 6 | -6 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 13 | 28 | +15 | Cole Custer |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | Chase Briscoe |
| 15 | 4 | -11 | Ryan Blaney |
| 16 | 21 | +5 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 17 | 22 | +5 | Michael McDowell |
| 18 | 3 | -15 | Chase Elliott |
| 19 | 35 | +16 | Quin Houff |
| 20 | 38 | +18 | Justin Haley |
| 21 | 25 | +4 | Ryan Newman |
| 22 | 29 | +7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 23 | 18 | -5 | Daniel Suarez |
| 24 | 40 | +16 | Landon Cassill |
| 25 | 36 | +11 | Joey Gase |
| 26 | 20 | -6 | Aric Almirola |
| 27 | 2 | -25 | Kyle Busch |
| 28 | 31 | +3 | Cody Ware |
| 29 | 37 | +8 | Garrett Smithley |
| 30 | 32 | +2 | B.J. McLeod |
| 31 | 34 | +3 | Josh Bilicki |
| 32 | 27 | -5 | Ryan Preece |
| 33 | 23 | -10 | Ross Chastain |
| 34 | 39 | +5 | James Davison |
| 35 | 15 | -20 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 36 | 10 | -26 | William Byron |
| 37 | 5 | -32 | Kyle Larson |
| 38 | 11 | -27 | Alex Bowman |
| 39 | 13 | -26 | Tyler Reddick |
| 40 | 33 | -7 | Justin Allgaier |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Keselowski | 3 | 2 | — | 17 |
| Joey Logano | 2 | 3 | — | 17 |
| Chris Buescher | 1 | 6 | — | 15 |
| Bubba Wallace | — | 1 | — | 10 |
| Kevin Harvick | 4 | 8 | — | 10 |
| Kurt Busch | 9 | 4 | — | 9 |
| Christopher Bell | — | 5 | — | 6 |
| Tyler Reddick | 5 | — | — | 6 |
| Ryan Blaney | 6 | — | — | 5 |
| Denny Hamlin | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Chase Elliott | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Ross Chastain | 8 | — | — | 3 |
| Erik Jones | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Alex Bowman | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Briscoe | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Landon Cassill | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| James Davison | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| William Byron | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Larson | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Allgaier | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 30 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bubba Wallace | 16.9 | 1 | +15.9 |
| 2 | Brad Keselowski | 18.5 | 2 | +16.5 |
| 3 | Joey Logano | 18.5 | 3 | +15.5 |
| 5 | Christopher Bell | 15.1 | 5 | +10.1 |
| 6 | Chris Buescher | 13.6 | 6 | +7.6 |
| 7 | Denny Hamlin | 15.1 | 7 | +8.1 |
| 9 | Erik Jones | 16.0 | 9 | +7.0 |
| 10 | Anthony Alfredo | 23.4 | 10 | +13.4 |
| 11 | Austin Dillon | 21.1 | 11 | +10.1 |
| 12 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 20.5 | 12 | +8.5 |
| 13 | Cole Custer | 22.9 | 13 | +9.9 |
| 14 | Chase Briscoe | 20.5 | 14 | +6.5 |
| 15 | Ryan Blaney | 10.4 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 16 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18.5 | 16 | +2.5 |
| 17 | Michael McDowell | 19.2 | 17 | +2.2 |
| 18 | Chase Elliott | 13.6 | 18 | -4.4 |
| 20 | Justin Haley | 23.4 | 20 | +3.4 |
| 22 | Corey LaJoie | 23.3 | 22 | +1.3 |
| 23 | Daniel Suarez | 15.1 | 23 | -7.9 |
| 25 | Joey Gase | 23.7 | 25 | -1.3 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Bubba Wallace: has 23 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 19.0 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 28 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P15 on the day.
- Brad Keselowski: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P19. Track history: 38 starts, 16.0 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 YellaWood 500?
Bubba Wallace won the 2021 YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway driving for 23XI Racing.
Where was the 2021 YellaWood 500 held?
The 2021 YellaWood 500 was held at Talladega Superspeedway on October 4, 2021.