Bass Pro Shops Night Race
Bristol Motor Speedway — September 18, 2021
Kyle Larson
Winner
500
Laps
21
Entries
7
Leaders
Kyle Larson won the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 18, 2021, leading 175 of 500 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; William Byron rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 18, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 9 | +7 | Kevin Harvick |
| 3 | 11 | +8 | William Byron |
| 4 | 8 | +4 | Ryan Blaney |
| 5 | 13 | +8 | Alex Bowman |
| 6 | 6 | — | Brad Keselowski |
| 7 | 4 | -3 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 8 | 28 | +20 | Erik Jones |
| 9 | 3 | -6 | Denny Hamlin |
| 10 | 21 | +11 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 11 | 5 | -6 | Joey Logano |
| 12 | 18 | +6 | Tyler Reddick |
| 13 | 22 | +9 | Chase Briscoe |
| 14 | 16 | +2 | Ross Chastain |
| 15 | 14 | -1 | Austin Dillon |
| 16 | 17 | +1 | Bubba Wallace |
| 17 | 26 | +9 | Ryan Preece |
| 18 | 23 | +5 | Aric Almirola |
| 19 | 10 | -9 | Kurt Busch |
| 20 | 25 | +5 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 25 | 2 | -23 | Chase Elliott |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 1 | 1 | — | 20 |
| William Byron | 4 | 3 | — | 15 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 3 | 4 | — | 15 |
| Alex Bowman | 8 | 2 | — | 12 |
| Kyle Larson | 2 | 11 | — | 9 |
| Brad Keselowski | 5 | 8 | — | 9 |
| Denny Hamlin | 14 | 5 | — | 6 |
| Aric Almirola | 10 | 6 | — | 6 |
| Austin Dillon | 7 | 21 | — | 4 |
| Joey Logano | 9 | 18 | — | 2 |
| Kurt Busch | 16 | 10 | — | 1 |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 4.8 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Excellent
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 1 | +7.6 |
| 3 | William Byron | 10.3 | 3 | +7.3 |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 4 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 5 | +9.0 |
| 6 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 6 | +6.0 |
| 7 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 7 | +6.8 |
| 8 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 8 | +9.7 |
| 9 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 9 | -2.2 |
| 11 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 11 | +1.1 |
| 12 | Tyler Reddick | 9.9 | 12 | -2.1 |
| 13 | Chase Briscoe | 12.6 | 13 | -0.4 |
| 14 | Ross Chastain | 13.8 | 14 | -0.2 |
| 15 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 15 | +2.0 |
| 16 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 16 | -2.0 |
| 17 | Ryan Preece | 10.8 | 17 | -6.2 |
| 20 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 20 | +0.1 |
| 25 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 25 | -16.7 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Larson: has 37 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.2 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 28 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.6 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P4 on the day.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race?
Kyle Larson won the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race held?
The 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 18, 2021.