Bass Pro Shops Night Race
Bristol Motor Speedway, September 18, 2021
Kyle Larson
Winner
500
Laps
38
Entries
7
Leaders
Kyle Larson won the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 18, 2021, leading 175 of 500 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; William Byron rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 18, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 8 | +6 | Kevin Harvick |
| 3 | 14 | +11 | William Byron |
| 4 | 7 | +3 | Ryan Blaney |
| 5 | 11 | +6 | Alex Bowman |
| 6 | 10 | +4 | Brad Keselowski |
| 7 | 1 | -6 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 8 | 22 | +14 | Erik Jones |
| 9 | 2 | -7 | Denny Hamlin |
| 10 | 19 | +9 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 11 | 3 | -8 | Joey Logano |
| 12 | 13 | +1 | Tyler Reddick |
| 13 | 20 | +7 | Chase Briscoe |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | Ross Chastain |
| 15 | 18 | +3 | Austin Dillon |
| 16 | 28 | +12 | Bubba Wallace |
| 17 | 27 | +10 | Ryan Preece |
| 18 | 12 | -6 | Aric Almirola |
| 19 | 15 | -4 | Kurt Busch |
| 20 | 23 | +3 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 21 | 9 | -12 | Kyle Busch |
| 22 | 21 | -1 | Daniel Suarez |
| 23 | 25 | +2 | Chris Buescher |
| 24 | 16 | -8 | Michael McDowell |
| 25 | 4 | -21 | Chase Elliott |
| 26 | 31 | +5 | Corey LaJoie |
| 27 | 35 | +8 | J.J. Yeley |
| 28 | 26 | -2 | Cole Custer |
| 29 | 6 | -23 | Christopher Bell |
| 30 | 36 | +6 | Garrett Smithley |
| 31 | 33 | +2 | Josh Bilicki |
| 32 | 38 | +6 | David Starr |
| 33 | 37 | +4 | James Davison |
| 34 | 34 | — | Quin Houff |
| 35 | 30 | -5 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 36 | 29 | -7 | Justin Haley |
| 37 | 32 | -5 | B.J. McLeod |
| 38 | 24 | -14 | Ryan Newman |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 2 | 1 | — | 19 |
| Denny Hamlin | 1 | 2 | — | 19 |
| Brad Keselowski | 4 | 3 | — | 15 |
| Chase Elliott | 3 | 5 | — | 14 |
| Kevin Harvick | 6 | 6 | — | 10 |
| Ryan Blaney | 5 | 7 | — | 10 |
| William Byron | 10 | 4 | — | 8 |
| Christopher Bell | 8 | 8 | — | 6 |
| Kyle Busch | 7 | 10 | — | 5 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Tyler Reddick | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Logano | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Briscoe | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| David Starr | — | — | — | — |
| James Davison | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 29 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.9 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 1 | +9.3 |
| 3 | William Byron | 10.8 | 3 | +7.8 |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 4 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 5 | +10.6 |
| 6 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 6 | +7.8 |
| 7 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 7 | +7.0 |
| 8 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 8 | +9.7 |
| 9 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 9 | -2.2 |
| 11 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 11 | -0.7 |
| 12 | Tyler Reddick | 12.0 | 12 | 0.0 |
| 13 | Chase Briscoe | 8.6 | 13 | -4.4 |
| 14 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 14 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 15 | +2.7 |
| 16 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 16 | -3.4 |
| 17 | Ryan Preece | 12.6 | 17 | -4.4 |
| 20 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 20 | +0.4 |
| 22 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 22 | -8.0 |
| 23 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 23 | -11.0 |
| 24 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 24 | -8.4 |
| 25 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 25 | -15.1 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Larson: has 35 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 9.9 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 30 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 12.4 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P4 on the day.
- Alex Bowman: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P16. Track history: 23 starts, 20.4 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race?
Kyle Larson won the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race held?
The 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 18, 2021.