Cook Out Southern 500
Darlington Raceway — September 5, 2021
Denny Hamlin
Winner
367
Laps
23
Entries
10
Leaders
Denny Hamlin won the 2021 Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway on September 5, 2021, leading 146 of 367 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Ross Chastain rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, September 5, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
10 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +1 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 25 | +22 | Ross Chastain |
| 4 | 8 | +4 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 5 | 24 | +19 | Kevin Harvick |
| 6 | 17 | +11 | Kurt Busch |
| 7 | 7 | — | Brad Keselowski |
| 8 | 5 | -3 | Joey Logano |
| 9 | 10 | +1 | Chris Buescher |
| 10 | 15 | +5 | Austin Dillon |
| 11 | 20 | +9 | Cole Custer |
| 12 | 23 | +11 | Ryan Preece |
| 13 | 19 | +6 | Daniel Suarez |
| 14 | 31 | +17 | Ryan Newman |
| 15 | 29 | +14 | Corey LaJoie |
| 16 | 22 | +6 | Aric Almirola |
| 17 | 27 | +10 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 18 | 9 | -9 | Tyler Reddick |
| 19 | 26 | +7 | Chase Briscoe |
| 20 | 11 | -9 | Christopher Bell |
| 22 | 4 | -18 | Ryan Blaney |
| 29 | 37 | +8 | Joey Gase |
| 32 | 21 | -11 | Erik Jones |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 3 | 1 | — | 18 |
| Ryan Blaney | 2 | 3 | — | 17 |
| Kurt Busch | 4 | 6 | — | 12 |
| Denny Hamlin | 7 | 7 | — | 8 |
| Chase Briscoe | 6 | 8 | — | 8 |
| Kevin Harvick | 11 | 4 | — | 7 |
| Brad Keselowski | 10 | 5 | — | 7 |
| Tyler Reddick | 9 | 9 | — | 4 |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 19 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.6 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 1 | +7.2 |
| 2 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 2 | +10.7 |
| 3 | Ross Chastain | 13.3 | 3 | +10.3 |
| 4 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 4 | +11.4 |
| 7 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 7 | +4.2 |
| 8 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 8 | +6.7 |
| 9 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 9 | +0.2 |
| 10 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 10 | +7.1 |
| 11 | Cole Custer | 22.9 | 11 | +11.9 |
| 12 | Ryan Preece | 10.1 | 12 | -1.9 |
| 13 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 13 | +1.0 |
| 15 | Corey LaJoie | 22.2 | 15 | +7.2 |
| 17 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 17 | +2.9 |
| 18 | Tyler Reddick | 6.2 | 18 | -11.8 |
| 19 | Chase Briscoe | 11.9 | 19 | -7.1 |
| 20 | Christopher Bell | 10.7 | 20 | -9.3 |
| 22 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 22 | -12.8 |
| 29 | Joey Gase | 23.4 | 29 | -5.6 |
| 32 | Erik Jones | 16.7 | 32 | -15.3 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin: has 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.6 avg finish (10 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 21 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 13.4 avg finish (1 win), finishing P18 on the day.
- Cole Custer: was the biggest surprise, finishing P11 vs predicted P23. Track history: 14 starts, 11.9 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 Cook Out Southern 500?
Denny Hamlin won the 2021 Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2021 Cook Out Southern 500 held?
The 2021 Cook Out Southern 500 was held at Darlington Raceway on September 5, 2021.