Drydene 400

Dover Motor Speedway — May 16, 2021

Alex Bowman
Winner
400
Laps
20
Entries
5
Leaders

Alex Bowman won the 2021 Drydene 400 at Dover Motor Speedway on May 16, 2021, leading 98 of 400 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Chase Elliott rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, May 16, 2021
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 10 +9 Alex Bowman
2 2 Kyle Larson
3 34 +31 Chase Elliott
4 1 -3 William Byron
5 14 +9 Joey Logano
6 25 +19 Kevin Harvick
7 6 -1 Denny Hamlin
8 4 -4 Tyler Reddick
9 11 +2 Daniel Suarez
10 15 +5 Cole Custer
11 36 +25 Bubba Wallace
12 17 +5 Ryan Blaney
13 16 +3 Kurt Busch
14 37 +23 Austin Dillon
15 8 -7 Ross Chastain
16 20 +4 Brad Keselowski
17 12 -5 Chris Buescher
18 32 +14 Ryan Preece
19 9 -10 Martin Truex, Jr.
20 38 +18 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Stage Results
Driver Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage Pts
William Byron 1 2 19
Tyler Reddick 4 1 17
Kyle Larson 3 4 15
Ross Chastain 5 3 14
Kurt Busch 9 5 8
Joey Logano 11 6 5
Denny Hamlin 6 19 5
Kevin Harvick 18 7 4
Alex Bowman 8 21 3
Bubba Wallace 33 8 3
Chase Elliott 10 15 1
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 18 matched drivers, the model averaged 5.3 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Alex Bowman 14.0 1 +13.0
2 Kyle Larson 8.6 2 +6.6
3 Chase Elliott 8.3 3 +5.3
4 William Byron 10.3 4 +6.3
5 Joey Logano 12.1 5 +7.1
7 Denny Hamlin 6.8 7 -0.2
8 Tyler Reddick 9.9 8 +1.9
9 Daniel Suarez 15.6 9 +6.6
10 Cole Custer 23.0 10 +13.0
11 Bubba Wallace 14.0 11 +3.0
12 Ryan Blaney 6.8 12 -5.2
14 Austin Dillon 17.0 14 +3.0
15 Ross Chastain 13.8 15 -1.2
16 Brad Keselowski 12.0 16 -4.0
17 Chris Buescher 10.3 17 -6.7
18 Ryan Preece 10.8 18 -7.2
19 Martin Truex, Jr. 13.8 19 -5.2
20 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20.1 20 +0.1

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Alex Bowman: has 10 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 10.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 14 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P7 on the day.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2021 Drydene 400?
Alex Bowman won the 2021 Drydene 400 at Dover Motor Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2021 Drydene 400 held?
The 2021 Drydene 400 was held at Dover Motor Speedway on May 16, 2021.