Instacart 500
Phoenix Raceway, March 14, 2021
Martin Truex, Jr.
Winner
312
Laps
38
Entries
9
Leaders
Martin Truex, Jr. won the 2021 Instacart 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 14, 2021, leading 64 of 312 laps. Joey Logano finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, March 14, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 2 | 9 | +7 | Joey Logano |
| 3 | 3 | — | Denny Hamlin |
| 4 | 1 | -3 | Brad Keselowski |
| 5 | 6 | +1 | Chase Elliott |
| 6 | 18 | +12 | Kevin Harvick |
| 7 | 2 | -5 | Kyle Larson |
| 8 | 10 | +2 | William Byron |
| 9 | 4 | -5 | Christopher Bell |
| 10 | 8 | -2 | Ryan Blaney |
| 11 | 32 | +21 | Aric Almirola |
| 12 | 11 | -1 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 13 | 21 | +8 | Alex Bowman |
| 14 | 20 | +6 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 15 | 12 | -3 | Kurt Busch |
| 16 | 25 | +9 | Bubba Wallace |
| 17 | 13 | -4 | Austin Dillon |
| 18 | 17 | -1 | Chris Buescher |
| 19 | 22 | +3 | Ross Chastain |
| 20 | 14 | -6 | Erik Jones |
| 21 | 27 | +6 | Daniel Suarez |
| 22 | 26 | +4 | Chase Briscoe |
| 23 | 16 | -7 | Michael McDowell |
| 24 | 29 | +5 | Justin Haley |
| 25 | 7 | -18 | Kyle Busch |
| 26 | 15 | -11 | Ryan Preece |
| 27 | 33 | +6 | Corey LaJoie |
| 28 | 19 | -9 | Ryan Newman |
| 29 | 23 | -6 | Tyler Reddick |
| 30 | 30 | — | B.J. McLeod |
| 31 | 24 | -7 | Cole Custer |
| 32 | 35 | +3 | Quin Houff |
| 33 | 38 | +5 | James Davison |
| 34 | 34 | — | Garrett Smithley |
| 35 | 36 | +1 | Josh Bilicki |
| 36 | 31 | -5 | Cody Ware |
| 37 | 28 | -9 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 38 | 37 | -1 | Timmy Hill |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Logano | 2 | 1 | — | 19 |
| Ryan Blaney | 1 | 5 | — | 16 |
| Denny Hamlin | 4 | 3 | — | 15 |
| Brad Keselowski | 3 | 4 | — | 15 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | 2 | — | 9 |
| Kevin Harvick | 7 | 6 | — | 9 |
| Chase Elliott | 5 | 9 | — | 8 |
| William Byron | 8 | 7 | — | 7 |
| Kyle Busch | 6 | — | — | 5 |
| Aric Almirola | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Kyle Larson | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Christopher Bell | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Briscoe | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Reddick | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| James Davison | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Cody Ware | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 29 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.7 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 1 | +13.0 |
| 2 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 2 | +8.3 |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 3 | +3.8 |
| 4 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 4 | +9.8 |
| 5 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 5 | +4.9 |
| 7 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 7 | +3.3 |
| 8 | William Byron | 10.8 | 8 | +2.8 |
| 9 | Christopher Bell | 8.3 | 9 | -0.7 |
| 10 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 10 | -3.2 |
| 12 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 12 | +8.4 |
| 13 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 13 | +2.6 |
| 16 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 16 | -3.4 |
| 17 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 17 | +0.7 |
| 18 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 18 | -6.0 |
| 19 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 19 | -6.4 |
| 20 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 20 | -2.3 |
| 21 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 21 | -7.0 |
| 22 | Chase Briscoe | 8.6 | 22 | -13.4 |
| 23 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 23 | -7.4 |
| 24 | Justin Haley | 21.2 | 24 | -2.8 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Martin Truex, Jr.: has 16 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 11.4 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 28 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 10.6 avg finish (1 win), finishing P3 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 Instacart 500?
Martin Truex, Jr. won the 2021 Instacart 500 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2021 Instacart 500 held?
The 2021 Instacart 500 was held at Phoenix Raceway on March 14, 2021.