NASCAR Xfinity Series at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway — October 2, 2021

Brandon Brown
Winner
107
Laps
40
Entries
17
Leaders

Brandon Brown won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway on October 2, 2021, leading 8 of 107 laps. Brandon Jones finished second; Justin Allgaier rounded out the podium. The race featured 17 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, October 2, 2021
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
17 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 19 +18 Brandon Brown
2 7 +5 Brandon Jones
3 1 -2 Justin Allgaier
4 6 +2 Daniel Hemric
5 29 +24 Jordan Anderson
6 8 +2 Justin Haley
7 14 +7 Jeb Burton
8 2 -6 Austin Cindric
9 3 -6 Josh Berry
10 40 +30 Joe Graf Jr.
11 17 +6 Ryan Sieg
12 26 +14 Jade Buford
13 23 +10 Blaine Perkins
14 24 +10 Josh Williams
15 39 +24 Joey Gase
16 38 +22 J.J. Yeley
17 33 +16 Santino Ferrucci
18 18 Tommy Joe Martins
19 35 +16 Garrett Smithley
20 25 +5 Kyle Weatherman
21 32 +11 Alex Labbe
22 11 -11 John Hunter Nemechek
23 30 +7 Matt Mills
24 15 -9 Jeremy Clements
25 9 -16 Harrison Burton
26 16 -10 Brett Moffitt
27 13 -14 Riley Herbst
28 34 +6 Jason A. White
29 31 +2 Jeffrey Earnhardt
30 4 -26 Noah Gragson
31 10 -21 Myatt Snider
32 37 +5 Caesar Bacarella
33 22 -11 Ryan Vargas
34 36 +2 C.J. McLaughlin
35 27 -8 Mason Massey
36 20 -16 Bayley Currey
37 21 -16 Landon Cassill
38 12 -26 Sam Mayer
39 5 -34 A.J. Allmendinger
40 28 -12 David Starr
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 11 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
3 Justin Allgaier 21.1 3 +18.1
6 Justin Haley 23.4 6 +17.4
8 Austin Cindric 20.1 8 +12.1
9 Josh Berry 24.0 9 +15.0
15 Joey Gase 23.7 15 +8.7
16 J.J. Yeley 25.2 16 +9.2
22 John Hunter Nemechek 20.5 22 -1.5
27 Riley Herbst 23.7 27 -3.3
30 Noah Gragson 24.0 30 -6.0
39 A.J. Allmendinger 20.1 39 -18.9
40 David Starr 21.1 40 -18.9

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Brandon Brown: has 8 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.4 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Austin Cindric: was the model’s top pick based on 16 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 15.3 avg finish (1 win), finishing P8 on the day.
  • Justin Allgaier: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P21. Track history: 23 starts, 19.5 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Talladega?
Brandon Brown won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway.
Where was the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Talladega held?
The 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Talladega was held at Talladega Superspeedway on October 2, 2021.