YellaWood 500

Talladega Superspeedway — October 4, 2021

Bubba Wallace
Winner
117
Laps
26
Entries
19
Leaders

Bubba Wallace won the 2021 YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on October 4, 2021, leading 5 of 117 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 19 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Monday, October 4, 2021
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
19 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 23 +22 Bubba Wallace
2 10 +8 Brad Keselowski
3 15 +12 Joey Logano
4 7 +3 Kurt Busch
5 16 +11 Christopher Bell
6 18 +12 Chris Buescher
7 6 -1 Denny Hamlin
8 1 -7 Kevin Harvick
9 29 +20 Erik Jones
10 27 +17 Anthony Alfredo
11 12 +1 Austin Dillon
12 4 -8 Martin Truex, Jr.
13 20 +7 Cole Custer
14 24 +10 Chase Briscoe
15 26 +11 Ryan Blaney
16 17 +1 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
17 5 -12 Michael McDowell
18 8 -10 Chase Elliott
19 36 +17 Quin Houff
20 25 +5 Justin Haley
27 14 -13 Kyle Busch
28 32 +4 Cody Ware
35 30 -5 Matt DiBenedetto
37 3 -34 Kyle Larson
38 9 -29 Alex Bowman
39 11 -28 Tyler Reddick
Stage Results
Driver Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage Pts
Brad Keselowski 1 2 19
Denny Hamlin 4 3 15
Ryan Blaney 3 5 14
Alex Bowman 5 6 11
Chase Elliott 2 10 10
Kyle Larson 12 1 10
Christopher Bell 6 7 9
Martin Truex, Jr. 10 8 4
Matt DiBenedetto 8 12 3
Joey Logano 9 14 2
Kyle Busch 14 9 2
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 22 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Bubba Wallace 16.0 1 +15.0
2 Brad Keselowski 16.0 2 +14.0
3 Joey Logano 20.5 3 +17.5
5 Christopher Bell 17.4 5 +12.4
6 Chris Buescher 13.6 6 +7.6
7 Denny Hamlin 16.0 7 +9.0
9 Erik Jones 18.5 9 +9.5
10 Anthony Alfredo 23.7 10 +13.7
11 Austin Dillon 23.4 11 +12.4
12 Martin Truex, Jr. 20.1 12 +8.1
13 Cole Custer 23.4 13 +10.4
14 Chase Briscoe 21.7 14 +7.7
15 Ryan Blaney 13.9 15 -1.1
16 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 18.5 16 +2.5
17 Michael McDowell 20.0 17 +3.0
18 Chase Elliott 10.4 18 -7.6
20 Justin Haley 23.4 20 +3.4
27 Kyle Busch 15.1 27 -11.9
28 Cody Ware 27.9 28 -0.1
37 Kyle Larson 18.5 37 -18.5

(showing top 20 finishers)

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Bubba Wallace: has 23 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.3 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 22 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 14.3 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P18 on the day.
  • Joey Logano: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P21. Track history: 42 starts, 18.0 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2021 YellaWood 500?
Bubba Wallace won the 2021 YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway driving for 23XI Racing.
Where was the 2021 YellaWood 500 held?
The 2021 YellaWood 500 was held at Talladega Superspeedway on October 4, 2021.