NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington
Darlington Raceway, May 7, 2022
Justin Allgaier
Winner
147
Laps
38
Entries
6
Leaders
Justin Allgaier won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington at Darlington Raceway on May 7, 2022, leading 76 of 147 laps. Noah Gragson finished second; Riley Herbst rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, May 7, 2022
Track
Season
2022
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Justin Allgaier |
| 2 | 4 | +2 | Noah Gragson |
| 3 | 8 | +5 | Riley Herbst |
| 4 | 23 | +19 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 5 | 7 | +2 | Sam Mayer |
| 6 | 13 | +7 | Landon Cassill |
| 7 | 6 | -1 | Brandon Jones |
| 8 | 5 | -3 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 9 | 12 | +3 | Austin Hill |
| 10 | 11 | +1 | Daniel Hemric |
| 11 | 9 | -2 | Ryan Sieg |
| 12 | 31 | +19 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 13 | 16 | +3 | Brett Moffitt |
| 14 | 15 | +1 | Jeb Burton |
| 15 | 14 | -1 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 16 | 1 | -15 | Ty Gibbs |
| 17 | 36 | +19 | Tommy Joe Martins |
| 18 | 2 | -16 | Josh Berry |
| 19 | 18 | -1 | Alex Labbe |
| 20 | 35 | +15 | Stefan Parsons |
| 21 | 24 | +3 | Ryan Vargas |
| 22 | 32 | +10 | Mason Massey |
| 23 | 30 | +7 | Bayley Currey |
| 24 | 29 | +5 | Patrick Emerling |
| 25 | 20 | -5 | J.J. Yeley |
| 26 | 34 | +8 | Tyler Reddick |
| 27 | 27 | — | David Starr |
| 28 | 37 | +9 | Josh Bilicki |
| 29 | 22 | -7 | Jeremy Clements |
| 30 | 28 | -2 | Ryan Truex |
| 31 | 33 | +2 | Matt Mills |
| 32 | 26 | -6 | Kyle Sieg |
| 33 | 38 | +5 | Timmy Hill |
| 34 | 25 | -9 | Josh Williams |
| 35 | 17 | -18 | Brandon Brown |
| 36 | 21 | -15 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 37 | 19 | -18 | Myatt Snider |
| 38 | 10 | -28 | Sheldon Creed |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Allgaier | 17.1 | 1 | +16.1 |
| 2 | Noah Gragson | 22.9 | 2 | +20.9 |
| 3 | Riley Herbst | 19.9 | 3 | +16.9 |
| 4 | John Hunter Nemechek | 18.3 | 4 | +14.3 |
| 8 | A.J. Allmendinger | 17.1 | 8 | +9.1 |
| 9 | Austin Hill | 26.4 | 9 | +17.4 |
| 15 | Anthony Alfredo | 21.4 | 15 | +6.4 |
| 16 | Ty Gibbs | 10.7 | 16 | -5.3 |
| 18 | Josh Berry | 21.4 | 18 | +3.4 |
| 25 | J.J. Yeley | 28.6 | 25 | +3.6 |
| 26 | Tyler Reddick | 11.2 | 26 | -14.8 |
| 27 | David Starr | 21.0 | 27 | -6.0 |
| 28 | Josh Bilicki | 26.1 | 28 | -1.9 |
| 30 | Ryan Truex | 16.9 | 30 | -13.1 |
| 33 | Timmy Hill | 23.9 | 33 | -9.1 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Justin Allgaier: has 21 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 10.0 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ty Gibbs: was the model’s top pick based on 11 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 13.2 avg finish, finishing P16 on the day.
- Noah Gragson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P23. Track history: 12 starts, 12.9 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington?
Justin Allgaier won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington at Darlington Raceway.
Where was the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington held?
The 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington was held at Darlington Raceway on May 7, 2022.