NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington

Darlington Raceway — May 7, 2022

Justin Allgaier
Winner
147
Laps
38
Entries
6
Leaders

Justin Allgaier won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington at Darlington Raceway on May 7, 2022, leading 76 of 147 laps. Noah Gragson finished second; Riley Herbst rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, May 7, 2022
Season
2022
Leaders
6 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 3 +2 Justin Allgaier
2 4 +2 Noah Gragson
3 8 +5 Riley Herbst
4 23 +19 John Hunter Nemechek
5 7 +2 Sam Mayer
6 13 +7 Landon Cassill
7 6 -1 Brandon Jones
8 5 -3 A.J. Allmendinger
9 12 +3 Austin Hill
10 11 +1 Daniel Hemric
11 9 -2 Ryan Sieg
12 31 +19 Kyle Weatherman
13 16 +3 Brett Moffitt
14 15 +1 Jeb Burton
15 14 -1 Anthony Alfredo
16 1 -15 Ty Gibbs
17 36 +19 Tommy Joe Martins
18 2 -16 Josh Berry
19 18 -1 Alex Labbe
20 35 +15 Stefan Parsons
21 24 +3 Ryan Vargas
22 32 +10 Mason Massey
23 30 +7 Bayley Currey
24 29 +5 Patrick Emerling
25 20 -5 J.J. Yeley
26 34 +8 Tyler Reddick
27 27 David Starr
28 37 +9 Josh Bilicki
29 22 -7 Jeremy Clements
30 28 -2 Ryan Truex
31 33 +2 Matt Mills
32 26 -6 Kyle Sieg
33 38 +5 Timmy Hill
34 25 -9 Josh Williams
35 17 -18 Brandon Brown
36 21 -15 Joe Graf Jr.
37 19 -18 Myatt Snider
38 10 -28 Sheldon Creed
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Justin Allgaier 18.3 1 +17.3
2 Noah Gragson 21.4 2 +19.4
3 Riley Herbst 21.4 3 +18.4
4 John Hunter Nemechek 19.1 4 +15.1
8 A.J. Allmendinger 18.3 8 +10.3
9 Austin Hill 20.9 9 +11.9
15 Anthony Alfredo 20.9 15 +5.9
16 Ty Gibbs 14.5 16 -1.5
18 Josh Berry 22.9 18 +4.9
25 J.J. Yeley 28.8 25 +3.8
26 Tyler Reddick 6.2 26 -19.8
27 David Starr 20.9 27 -6.1
28 Josh Bilicki 28.6 28 +0.6
30 Ryan Truex 15.4 30 -14.6
33 Timmy Hill 23.9 33 -9.1

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Justin Allgaier: has 21 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 10.0 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 21 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 13.4 avg finish (1 win), finishing P26 on the day.
  • Noah Gragson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P21. Track history: 11 starts, 11.7 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington?
Justin Allgaier won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington at Darlington Raceway.
Where was the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington held?
The 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at Darlington was held at Darlington Raceway on May 7, 2022.