NASCAR Xfinity Series at New Hampshire
New Hampshire Motor Speedway — July 16, 2022
Justin Allgaier
Winner
200
Laps
38
Entries
10
Leaders
Justin Allgaier won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at New Hampshire at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 16, 2022, leading 47 of 200 laps. Trevor Bayne finished second; Brandon Brown rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, July 16, 2022
Season
2022
Winner
Leaders
10 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Justin Allgaier |
| 2 | 6 | +4 | Trevor Bayne |
| 3 | 19 | +16 | Brandon Brown |
| 4 | 21 | +17 | Jeremy Clements |
| 5 | 18 | +13 | Sheldon Creed |
| 6 | 17 | +11 | Ty Dillon |
| 7 | 15 | +8 | Austin Hill |
| 8 | 20 | +12 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 9 | 30 | +21 | Mason Massey |
| 10 | 24 | +14 | Bayley Currey |
| 11 | 31 | +20 | David Starr |
| 12 | 26 | +14 | Joe Graf Jr. |
| 13 | 33 | +20 | C.J. McLaughlin |
| 14 | 14 | — | Brett Moffitt |
| 15 | 12 | -3 | Sam Mayer |
| 16 | 28 | +12 | Patrick Emerling |
| 17 | 34 | +17 | Howie DiSavino III |
| 18 | 22 | +4 | Derek Griffith |
| 19 | 36 | +17 | Ryan Vargas |
| 20 | 7 | -13 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 21 | 4 | -17 | Ty Gibbs |
| 22 | 35 | +13 | Matt Mills |
| 23 | 38 | +15 | J.J. Yeley |
| 24 | 29 | +5 | Josh Williams |
| 25 | 37 | +12 | Akinori Ogata |
| 26 | 10 | -16 | William Byron |
| 27 | 27 | — | Alex Labbe |
| 28 | 8 | -20 | Brandon Jones |
| 29 | 16 | -13 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 30 | 13 | -17 | Riley Herbst |
| 31 | 1 | -30 | Josh Berry |
| 32 | 11 | -21 | Ryan Sieg |
| 33 | 23 | -10 | Jeb Burton |
| 34 | 25 | -9 | Myatt Snider |
| 35 | 2 | -33 | Daniel Hemric |
| 36 | 32 | -4 | Julia Landauer |
| 37 | 5 | -32 | Landon Cassill |
| 38 | 9 | -29 | Noah Gragson |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Allgaier | 17.7 | 1 | +16.7 |
| 6 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 6 | +18.3 |
| 7 | Austin Hill | 20.2 | 7 | +13.2 |
| 11 | David Starr | 20.2 | 11 | +9.2 |
| 20 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 20 | -1.7 |
| 21 | Ty Gibbs | 12.6 | 21 | -8.4 |
| 23 | J.J. Yeley | 28.1 | 23 | +5.1 |
| 26 | William Byron | 10.3 | 26 | -15.7 |
| 29 | Anthony Alfredo | 22.0 | 29 | -7.0 |
| 30 | Riley Herbst | 22.1 | 30 | -7.9 |
| 31 | Josh Berry | 19.0 | 31 | -12.0 |
| 38 | Noah Gragson | 23.0 | 38 | -15.0 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Justin Allgaier: has 15 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 15.5 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- William Byron: was the model’s top pick based on 11 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 15.1 avg finish (1 win), finishing P26 on the day.
- Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P24. Track history: 12 starts, 18.2 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at New Hampshire?
Justin Allgaier won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at New Hampshire at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at New Hampshire held?
The 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at New Hampshire was held at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 16, 2022.