NASCAR Xfinity Series at New Hampshire

New Hampshire Motor Speedway — July 16, 2022

Justin Allgaier
Winner
200
Laps
38
Entries
10
Leaders

Justin Allgaier won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at New Hampshire at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 16, 2022, leading 47 of 200 laps. Trevor Bayne finished second; Brandon Brown rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, July 16, 2022
Season
2022
Leaders
10 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 3 +2 Justin Allgaier
2 6 +4 Trevor Bayne
3 19 +16 Brandon Brown
4 21 +17 Jeremy Clements
5 18 +13 Sheldon Creed
6 17 +11 Ty Dillon
7 15 +8 Austin Hill
8 20 +12 Kyle Weatherman
9 30 +21 Mason Massey
10 24 +14 Bayley Currey
11 31 +20 David Starr
12 26 +14 Joe Graf Jr.
13 33 +20 C.J. McLaughlin
14 14 Brett Moffitt
15 12 -3 Sam Mayer
16 28 +12 Patrick Emerling
17 34 +17 Howie DiSavino III
18 22 +4 Derek Griffith
19 36 +17 Ryan Vargas
20 7 -13 A.J. Allmendinger
21 4 -17 Ty Gibbs
22 35 +13 Matt Mills
23 38 +15 J.J. Yeley
24 29 +5 Josh Williams
25 37 +12 Akinori Ogata
26 10 -16 William Byron
27 27 Alex Labbe
28 8 -20 Brandon Jones
29 16 -13 Anthony Alfredo
30 13 -17 Riley Herbst
31 1 -30 Josh Berry
32 11 -21 Ryan Sieg
33 23 -10 Jeb Burton
34 25 -9 Myatt Snider
35 2 -33 Daniel Hemric
36 32 -4 Julia Landauer
37 5 -32 Landon Cassill
38 9 -29 Noah Gragson
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Justin Allgaier 17.7 1 +16.7
6 Ty Dillon 24.3 6 +18.3
7 Austin Hill 20.2 7 +13.2
11 David Starr 20.2 11 +9.2
20 A.J. Allmendinger 18.3 20 -1.7
21 Ty Gibbs 12.6 21 -8.4
23 J.J. Yeley 28.1 23 +5.1
26 William Byron 10.3 26 -15.7
29 Anthony Alfredo 22.0 29 -7.0
30 Riley Herbst 22.1 30 -7.9
31 Josh Berry 19.0 31 -12.0
38 Noah Gragson 23.0 38 -15.0

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Justin Allgaier: has 15 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 15.5 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • William Byron: was the model’s top pick based on 11 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 15.1 avg finish (1 win), finishing P26 on the day.
  • Ty Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P24. Track history: 12 starts, 18.2 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at New Hampshire?
Justin Allgaier won the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at New Hampshire at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at New Hampshire held?
The 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series at New Hampshire was held at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 16, 2022.