NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race
Phoenix Raceway, November 5, 2023
Ross Chastain
Winner
312
Laps
36
Entries
8
Leaders
Ross Chastain won the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway on November 5, 2023, leading 157 of 312 laps. Ryan Blaney finished second; Kyle Larson rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 5, 2023
Track
Season
2023
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | +7 | Ross Chastain |
| 2 | 15 | +13 | Ryan Blaney |
| 3 | 4 | +1 | Kyle Larson |
| 4 | 1 | -3 | William Byron |
| 5 | 9 | +4 | Chris Buescher |
| 6 | 2 | -4 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 7 | 3 | -4 | Kevin Harvick |
| 8 | 6 | -2 | Denny Hamlin |
| 9 | 19 | +10 | Michael McDowell |
| 10 | 5 | -5 | Bubba Wallace |
| 11 | 16 | +5 | Daniel Suarez |
| 12 | 21 | +9 | Austin Dillon |
| 13 | 28 | +15 | Aric Almirola |
| 14 | 12 | -2 | Ryan Preece |
| 15 | 31 | +16 | Brad Keselowski |
| 16 | 20 | +4 | Chase Elliott |
| 17 | 23 | +6 | Alex Bowman |
| 18 | 17 | -1 | Joey Logano |
| 19 | 22 | +3 | Carson Hocevar |
| 20 | 7 | -13 | Erik Jones |
| 21 | 11 | -10 | Ty Gibbs |
| 22 | 10 | -12 | Tyler Reddick |
| 23 | 24 | +1 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 24 | 26 | +2 | Chase Briscoe |
| 25 | 18 | -7 | Kyle Busch |
| 26 | 25 | -1 | Harrison Burton |
| 27 | 34 | +7 | J.J. Yeley |
| 28 | 33 | +5 | Ty Dillon |
| 29 | 35 | +6 | Justin Haley |
| 30 | 14 | -16 | Todd Gilliland |
| 31 | 29 | -2 | Corey LaJoie |
| 32 | 32 | — | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 33 | 36 | +3 | B.J. McLeod |
| 34 | 30 | -4 | Ryan Newman |
| 35 | 27 | -8 | Austin Cindric |
| 36 | 13 | -23 | Christopher Bell |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Chastain | 3 | 2 | — | 17 |
| Kevin Harvick | 2 | 3 | — | 17 |
| Chris Buescher | 6 | 1 | — | 15 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 7 | 5 | — | 10 |
| Bubba Wallace | 4 | 8 | — | 10 |
| Erik Jones | 8 | 10 | — | 4 |
| Brad Keselowski | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Ryan Blaney | 10 | 6 | — | — |
| Kyle Larson | 5 | 7 | — | — |
| William Byron | 1 | 4 | — | — |
| Denny Hamlin | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Elliott | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Logano | — | — | — | — |
| Carson Hocevar | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Gibbs | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Reddick | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Briscoe | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Harrison Burton | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| Todd Gilliland | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| A.J. Allmendinger | — | — | — | — |
| B.J. McLeod | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Cindric | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Bell | 9 | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 31 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.4 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 1 | +11.6 |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 2 | +4.8 |
| 3 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 3 | +7.3 |
| 4 | William Byron | 10.8 | 4 | +6.8 |
| 5 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 5 | +7.0 |
| 6 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 6 | +8.0 |
| 8 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 8 | -1.2 |
| 9 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 9 | +6.6 |
| 10 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 10 | +2.6 |
| 11 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 11 | +3.0 |
| 12 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 12 | +5.7 |
| 14 | Ryan Preece | 12.6 | 14 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 16 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 16 | -6.1 |
| 17 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 17 | -1.4 |
| 18 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 18 | -7.7 |
| 19 | Carson Hocevar | 15.6 | 19 | -3.4 |
| 20 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 20 | -2.3 |
| 21 | Ty Gibbs | 8.6 | 21 | -12.4 |
| 22 | Tyler Reddick | 12.0 | 22 | -10.0 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Ross Chastain: has 18 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 16.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 22 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 9.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race?
Ross Chastain won the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway driving for Trackhouse Racing.
Where was the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race held?
The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 5, 2023.