Ally 400

Nashville Superspeedway — June 25, 2023

Ross Chastain

Winner

300

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Ross Chastain won the 2023 Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway on June 25, 2023, leading 99 of 300 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 25, 2023

Track

Nashville Superspeedway

Season

2023

Winner

Ross Chastain

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Team	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	21	+20	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	300	Winner	Running	99	57
2	12	+10	Martin Truex, Jr.	Joe Gibbs Racing	300	—	Running	50	51
3	25	+22	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	300	—	Running	81	50
4	3	-1	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	300	—	Running	1	42
5	6	+1	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	300	—	Running	—	35
6	39	+33	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	300	—	Running	5	46
7	7	—	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	300	—	Running	3	38
8	36	+28	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	300	—	Running	—	30
9	5	-4	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	300	—	Running	12	32
10	26	+16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	300	—	Running	—	31
11	22	+11	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	300	—	Running	2	26
12	1	-11	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	300	—	Running	1	25
13	27	+14	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	300	—	Running	—	24
14	10	-4	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	300	—	Running	—	23
15	19	+4	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	300	—	Running	—	27
16	30	+14	Ryan Preece	Stewart-Haas Racing	300	—	Running	—	21
17	9	-8	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	300	—	Running	9	20
18	17	-1	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	300	—	Running	—	19
19	18	-1	Joey Logano	Team Penske	300	—	Running	—	18
20	14	-6	Corey LaJoie	Spire Motorsports	300	—	Running	—	17
21	—	—	Kevin Harvick	Stewart Haas Racing	90	—	Running	—	16
22	—	—	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	90	—	Running	—	15
23	—	—	Alex Bowman	Rick Hendrick	90	—	Running	—	14
24	—	—	Justin Haley	Matthew Kaulig	90	—	Running	—	13
25	—	—	Andy Lally	Rick Ware	90	—	Running	—	12
26	—	—	Kyle Larson	Rick Hendrick	90	—	Running	—	23
27	—	—	Josh Bilicki	B.J. McLeod	90	—	Running	—	0
28	—	—	Cole Custer	Rick Ware	90	—	Running	—	0
29	—	—	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	90	—	Running	—	8
30	2	-28	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	298	+2 Laps	running	33	17
31	—	—	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress	90	—	Running	—	7
32	35	+3	Ty Dillon	Spire Motorsports	298	+2 Laps	running	4	5
33	—	—	Harrison Burton	Wood Brothers	89	—	Running	—	4
34	—	—	Ty Dillon	Spire Motorsports	89	—	Running	—	3
35	—	—	Chase Briscoe	Stewart Haas Racing	83	—	Running	—	2
36	—	—	Michael McDowell	Bob Jenkins	74	—	Electrical	—	11

Stage Results

Driver	Stage 1	Stage 2	Stage 3	Stage Pts
Daniel Suarez	2	3	—	17
Chase Elliott	3	5	—	14
Tyler Reddick	4	7	—	11
Denny Hamlin	16	1	—	10
Kyle Busch	6	6	—	10
Kyle Larson	5	10	—	7
Brad Keselowski	23	4	—	7
Alex Bowman	8	8	—	6
Christopher Bell	7	13	—	4
Martin Truex, Jr.	10	12	—	1
Kevin Harvick	—	—	—	—
Daniel Suarez	—	—	—	—
Alex Bowman	—	—	—	—
Justin Haley	—	—	—	—
Andy Lally	—	—	—	—
Kyle Larson	—	—	—	—
Josh Bilicki	—	—	—	—
Cole Custer	—	—	—	—
Erik Jones	—	—	—	—
Austin Dillon	—	—	—	—
Harrison Burton	—	—	—	—
Ty Dillon	—	—	—	—
Chase Briscoe	—	—	—	—
Michael McDowell	—	—	—	—

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 27 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.2 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Ross Chastain	13.3	1	+12.3	Coinflip
2	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	2	+13.4	Coinflip
3	Denny Hamlin	8.2	3	+5.2	High Confidence
4	Chase Elliott	7.8	4	+3.8	High Confidence
5	Kyle Larson	12.7	5	+7.7	Coinflip
6	William Byron	10.7	6	+4.7	Moderate
7	Christopher Bell	10.7	7	+3.7	Moderate
8	Erik Jones	16.7	8	+8.7	Coinflip
9	Kyle Busch	17.0	9	+8.0	Coinflip
10	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	10	+8.3	Moderate
11	Brad Keselowski	11.2	11	+0.2	Moderate
12	Daniel Suarez	14.0	12	+2.0	Coinflip
13	Austin Dillon	17.1	13	+4.1	Coinflip
14	Ty Gibbs	14.5	14	+0.5	Coinflip
15	Bubba Wallace	12.7	15	-2.3	Coinflip
16	Ryan Preece	10.1	16	-5.9	Moderate
17	Alex Bowman	13.5	17	-3.5	Coinflip
18	Chris Buescher	9.2	18	-8.8	High Confidence
19	Joey Logano	14.7	19	-4.3	Coinflip
20	Corey LaJoie	22.2	20	+2.2	High Confidence

(showing top 20 finishers)

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Ross Chastain: has 8 career starts at Nashville Superspeedway with a 13.3 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 8 career starts at Nashville Superspeedway with a 16.0 avg finish, finishing P30 on the day.
Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P15. Track history: 3 starts, 15.7 avg finish.

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