South Point 400

Las Vegas Motor Speedway — October 15, 2023

Kyle Larson
Winner
267
Laps
21
Entries
7
Leaders

Kyle Larson won the 2023 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on October 15, 2023, leading 133 of 267 laps. Christopher Bell finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 15, 2023
Season
2023
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 13 +12 Kyle Larson
2 14 +12 Christopher Bell
3 9 +6 Kyle Busch
4 30 +26 Brad Keselowski
5 12 +7 Ross Chastain
6 38 +32 Ryan Blaney
7 1 -6 William Byron
8 2 -6 Tyler Reddick
9 25 +16 Martin Truex, Jr.
10 21 +11 Denny Hamlin
11 32 +21 Chris Buescher
12 15 +3 Joey Logano
13 11 -2 Bubba Wallace
14 39 +25 Aric Almirola
15 5 -10 Daniel Suarez
16 29 +13 Kevin Harvick
17 20 +3 Michael McDowell
18 28 +10 Austin Dillon
19 27 +8 Corey LaJoie
20 16 -4 Harrison Burton
29 J.J. Yeley
Stage Results
Driver Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage Pts
William Byron 1 12 10
Tyler Reddick 23 1 10
Austin Dillon 25 2 9
Michael McDowell 30 3 8
Kevin Harvick 15 4 7
Ross Chastain 5 16 6
Chris Buescher 20 5 6
Daniel Suarez 6 14 5
Kyle Larson 34 7 4
Kyle Busch 7 15 4
Christopher Bell 9 22 2
J.J. Yeley
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 18 matched drivers, the model averaged 4.3 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Excellent

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Kyle Larson 12.7 1 +11.7
2 Christopher Bell 10.7 2 +8.7
3 Kyle Busch 17.0 3 +14.0
4 Brad Keselowski 11.2 4 +7.2
5 Ross Chastain 13.3 5 +8.3
6 Ryan Blaney 9.2 6 +3.2
7 William Byron 10.7 7 +3.7
8 Tyler Reddick 6.2 8 -1.8
9 Martin Truex, Jr. 15.4 9 +6.4
10 Denny Hamlin 8.2 10 -1.8
11 Chris Buescher 9.2 11 -1.8
12 Joey Logano 14.7 12 +2.7
13 Bubba Wallace 12.7 13 -0.3
15 Daniel Suarez 14.0 15 -1.0
17 Michael McDowell 17.0 17 0.0
18 Austin Dillon 17.1 18 -0.9
19 Corey LaJoie 22.2 19 +3.2
29 J.J. Yeley 28.8 29 -0.2

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Kyle Larson: has 24 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 7.6 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Tyler Reddick: was the model’s top pick based on 22 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 12.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P8 on the day.
  • Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P17. Track history: 52 starts, 11.3 avg finish.

Explore More

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2023 South Point 400?
Kyle Larson won the 2023 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2023 South Point 400 held?
The 2023 South Point 400 was held at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on October 15, 2023.