NOCO 400
Martinsville Speedway, April 16, 2023
Kyle Larson
Winner
400
Laps
36
Entries
9
Leaders
Kyle Larson won the 2023 NOCO 400 at Martinsville Speedway on April 16, 2023, leading 30 of 400 laps. Joey Logano finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, April 16, 2023
Track
Season
2023
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | +18 | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 15 | +13 | Joey Logano |
| 3 | 5 | +2 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 4 | 11 | +7 | Denny Hamlin |
| 5 | 4 | -1 | Chase Briscoe |
| 6 | 3 | -3 | Aric Almirola |
| 7 | 31 | +24 | Ryan Blaney |
| 8 | 16 | +8 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 9 | 9 | — | Bubba Wallace |
| 10 | 24 | +14 | Chase Elliott |
| 11 | 23 | +12 | Alex Bowman |
| 12 | 18 | +6 | Austin Dillon |
| 13 | 34 | +21 | Ross Chastain |
| 14 | 10 | -4 | Chris Buescher |
| 15 | 1 | -14 | Ryan Preece |
| 16 | 22 | +6 | Christopher Bell |
| 17 | 2 | -15 | Daniel Suarez |
| 18 | 12 | -6 | Ty Gibbs |
| 19 | 20 | +1 | Michael McDowell |
| 20 | 7 | -13 | Kevin Harvick |
| 21 | 17 | -4 | Kyle Busch |
| 22 | 6 | -16 | Tyler Reddick |
| 23 | 8 | -15 | William Byron |
| 24 | 21 | -3 | Brad Keselowski |
| 25 | 13 | -12 | Todd Gilliland |
| 26 | 27 | +1 | Corey LaJoie |
| 27 | 14 | -13 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 28 | 26 | -2 | Justin Haley |
| 29 | 32 | +3 | Harrison Burton |
| 30 | 29 | -1 | Noah Gragson |
| 31 | 28 | -3 | Erik Jones |
| 32 | 35 | +3 | Ty Dillon |
| 33 | 25 | -8 | Austin Cindric |
| 34 | 33 | -1 | Zane Smith |
| 35 | 30 | -5 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 36 | 36 | — | J.J. Yeley |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Briscoe | 5 | 2 | — | 15 |
| Kevin Harvick | 6 | 1 | — | 15 |
| Tyler Reddick | 3 | 4 | — | 15 |
| Denny Hamlin | 8 | 3 | — | 11 |
| Aric Almirola | 2 | 9 | — | 11 |
| Ryan Preece | 1 | — | — | 10 |
| Daniel Suarez | 4 | 8 | — | 10 |
| Brad Keselowski | — | 5 | — | 6 |
| Ross Chastain | — | 6 | — | 5 |
| Bubba Wallace | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Todd Gilliland | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Kyle Larson | 9 | 10 | — | 3 |
| William Byron | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Joey Logano | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Blaney | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Elliott | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Bell | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Gibbs | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| A.J. Allmendinger | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| Harrison Burton | — | — | — | — |
| Noah Gragson | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Cindric | — | — | — | — |
| Zane Smith | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Alfredo | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 32 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.2 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 1 | +9.3 |
| 2 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 2 | +8.3 |
| 3 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 3 | +11.0 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 4 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Chase Briscoe | 8.6 | 5 | +3.6 |
| 7 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 7 | -0.2 |
| 8 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 8 | +12.4 |
| 9 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 9 | +3.6 |
| 10 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 10 | -0.1 |
| 11 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 11 | +4.6 |
| 12 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 12 | +5.7 |
| 13 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 13 | -0.4 |
| 14 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 14 | -2.0 |
| 15 | Ryan Preece | 12.6 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 16 | Christopher Bell | 8.3 | 16 | -7.7 |
| 17 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 17 | -3.0 |
| 18 | Ty Gibbs | 8.6 | 18 | -9.4 |
| 19 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 19 | -3.4 |
| 22 | Tyler Reddick | 12.0 | 22 | -10.0 |
| 23 | William Byron | 10.8 | 23 | -12.2 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Larson: has 24 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 49 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.9 avg finish (8 wins), finishing P4 on the day.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P8 vs predicted P20. Track history: 27 starts, 24.3 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2023 NOCO 400?
Kyle Larson won the 2023 NOCO 400 at Martinsville Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2023 NOCO 400 held?
The 2023 NOCO 400 was held at Martinsville Speedway on April 16, 2023.