Toyota Owners 400

Richmond Raceway — April 2, 2023

Kyle Larson
Winner
400
Laps
36
Entries
11
Leaders

Kyle Larson won the 2023 Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway on April 2, 2023, leading 93 of 400 laps. Josh Berry finished second; Ross Chastain rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, April 2, 2023
Season
2023
Winner
Leaders
11 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 22 +21 Kyle Larson
2 Josh Berry
3 8 +5 Ross Chastain
4 17 +13 Christopher Bell
5 4 -1 Kevin Harvick
6 21 +15 Michael McDowell
7 6 -1 Joey Logano
8 18 +10 Alex Bowman
9 15 +6 Ty Gibbs
10 19 +9 Brad Keselowski
11 5 -6 Martin Truex, Jr.
12 25 +13 Chase Briscoe
13 24 +11 Aric Almirola
14 1 -13 Kyle Busch
15 28 +13 Todd Gilliland
16 9 -7 Tyler Reddick
17 Chandler Smith
18 29 +11 Ryan Preece
19 14 -5 Harrison Burton
20 3 -17 Denny Hamlin
21 Aric Almirola
22 20 -2 Bubba Wallace
23 A.J. Allmendinger
24 7 -17 William Byron
25 Erik Jones
26 Noah Gragson
27 Ty Dillon
28 Ryan Newman
29 Ross Chastain
30 Josh Berry
31 Martin Truex, Jr.
32 B.J. McLeod
33 Michael McDowell
34 Daniel Suarez
35 Austin Dillon
36 Brennan Poole
Stage Results
Driver Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage Pts
Kyle Busch 1 2 19
Denny Hamlin 3 3 16
William Byron 7 4 11
Joey Logano 5 7 10
Kevin Harvick 6 8 8
Martin Truex, Jr. 4 11 7
Ross Chastain 8 9 5
Kyle Larson 28 10 1
Josh Berry
Chandler Smith
Aric Almirola
A.J. Allmendinger
Erik Jones
Noah Gragson
Ty Dillon
Ryan Newman
Ross Chastain
Josh Berry
Martin Truex, Jr.
B.J. McLeod
Michael McDowell
Daniel Suarez
Austin Dillon
Brennan Poole
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 26 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.5 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Kyle Larson 8.6 1 +7.6
2 Josh Berry 19.0 2 +17.0
3 Ross Chastain 13.8 3 +10.8
4 Christopher Bell 8.6 4 +4.6
6 Michael McDowell 15.0 6 +9.0
7 Joey Logano 12.1 7 +5.1
8 Alex Bowman 14.0 8 +6.0
9 Ty Gibbs 12.6 9 +3.6
10 Brad Keselowski 12.0 10 +2.0
11 Martin Truex, Jr. 13.8 11 +2.8
12 Chase Briscoe 12.6 12 +0.6
14 Kyle Busch 15.6 14 +1.6
15 Todd Gilliland 17.1 15 +2.1
16 Tyler Reddick 9.9 16 -6.1
18 Ryan Preece 10.8 18 -7.2
20 Denny Hamlin 6.8 20 -13.2
22 Bubba Wallace 14.0 22 -8.0
23 A.J. Allmendinger 18.3 23 -4.7
24 William Byron 10.3 24 -13.7
25 Erik Jones 17.7 25 -7.3

(showing top 20 finishers)

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Kyle Larson: has 18 career starts at Richmond Raceway with a 13.5 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Richmond Raceway with a 9.8 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P20 on the day.
  • Josh Berry: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P19. Track history: 9 starts, 13.4 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2023 Toyota Owners 400?
Kyle Larson won the 2023 Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2023 Toyota Owners 400 held?
The 2023 Toyota Owners 400 was held at Richmond Raceway on April 2, 2023.