NR-Rating Driver Rankings

Ratings updated: Wed, May 13, 2026, 07:50 AM ET

NR-Rating is NASCAR Reference's proprietary Elo rating system that measures driver skill across five track types: superspeedway, intermediate, short track, road course, and street course. Unlike traditional rankings based on points or wins, Elo ratings update after every race based on how a driver finishes relative to expectations — beating higher-rated drivers earns more rating points than beating lower-rated ones.

The NR-Rating model predicts finishing positions with a Mean Absolute Error of 8.5 positions. Short tracks (7.9 MAE) are most predictable; superspeedways (9.7 MAE) are most chaotic.

For bettors and DFS players: Higher Elo ratings indicate a driver who consistently outperforms expectations at a given track type. Compare a driver's track-type Elo to the field average (~1500) to gauge relative strength. A driver rated 1530+ on intermediates is a strong play at Charlotte or Kansas; one rated below 1480 on superspeedways is a fade candidate at Daytona and Talladega. Use the per-track-type columns to identify mismatches between public perception and model-based skill.

Looking for traditional stat-based rankings? See the Power Rankings. For official season points, visit Standings. Browse all driver profiles for career stats and track-by-track breakdowns.

Rank Driver Overall Races
1 Tyler Reddick 1614.6 229
2 Chase Elliott 1604.4 369
3 Denny Hamlin 1603.6 732
4 Ryan Blaney 1569.8 389
5 Chris Buescher 1568.7 376
6 Christopher Bell 1553.2 227
7 Ryan Preece 1545.5 234
8 Kyle Larson 1541.6 413
9 William Byron 1541.2 299
10 Brad Keselowski 1535.5 604
11 Chase Briscoe 1528.1 191
12 Carson Hocevar 1508.1 92
13 Ty Gibbs 1506.5 134
14 Bubba Wallace 1493.8 302
15 Joey Logano 1480.2 626
16 Ross Chastain 1478.2 270
17 Daniel Suarez 1477.2 334
18 Alex Bowman 1461.4 368
19 Austin Cindric 1446.1 162
20 Michael McDowell 1440.6 548
21 Shane van Gisbergen 1438.8 61
22 Kyle Busch 1436 761
23 Erik Jones 1433.2 336
24 Austin Dillon 1426.2 455
25 Todd Gilliland 1421.7 155
26 Casey Mears 1419.8 495
27 Justin Allgaier 1418.6 87
28 A.J. Allmendinger 1407.5 493
29 Zane Smith 1405.9 92
30 John Hunter Nemechek 1398.6 120
31 Jimmie Johnson 1388.2 701
32 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1381.9 483
33 Corey Heim 1378 10
34 Riley Herbst 1363.4 55
35 Anthony Alfredo 1361.6 44
36 Josh Berry 1360.8 95
37 Austin Hill 1356.5 17
38 Noah Gragson 1349 122
39 Connor Zilisch 1333.1 14
40 Ty Dillon 1332.2 292
41 Cole Custer 1329.8 164
42 Joey Gase 1326.8 94
43 John Nemechek 1312.6 4
44 Timmy Hill 1310.5 145
45 Jesse Love 1306.7 7
46 Daniel Dye 1305.1 1
47 B.J. McLeod 1304.8 151
48 Chad Finchum 1266.4 15
49 J.J. Yeley 1256 397
50 Cody Ware 1246 153

Showing 50 rated drivers sorted by overall Elo rating.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is NR-Rating?
NR-Rating is NASCAR Reference's Elo-based driver rating system. It tracks each driver's skill level across five track types — superspeedway, intermediate, short track, road course, and street course — using an Elo algorithm that updates after every race based on finishing position relative to expected performance.
How accurate is the NR-Rating model?
The NR-Rating model predicts finishing positions with a Mean Absolute Error of 8.5 positions. Short tracks (7.9 MAE) are the most predictable track type, while superspeedways (9.7 MAE) are the most chaotic and hardest to predict.
How often are NR-Ratings updated?
NR-Ratings update automatically after each race when the prediction pipeline processes new results. The generatedAt timestamp on the page shows the most recent update.

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