Cup Series Preview

Food City 500

Bristol Motor Speedway
Laps 500 Distance 266.5 mi Type short Coverage FS1 · 3:00 PM ET Stages 125 / 250 / 500
0.533
MI
concrete
Surface
Race Complete
Sunday, April 12, 2026
3:00 PM ET

Bristol Motor Speedway's spring race brings the Cup Series back to the high-banked concrete bullring before the lights and cameras of the August night race steal the headlines. The Food City 500 packs 500 laps into the 0.533-mile half-mile with 24-28 degrees of banking, and the daytime version of Bristol has its own character: different track temperatures, different tire wear curves, and different visibility than the floodlit night race. Goodyear has experimented with tire compounds at Bristol in recent seasons, sometimes producing aggressive fall-off that opens multiple grooves and other times yielding a single-file procession decided entirely by restarts. The 2024 spring race featured one of the most dramatic tire-wear stories in modern Bristol history, with lap-time degradation that hadn't been seen at the bullring in decades, and the strategy execution that day reminded the field how quickly a Bristol race can flip. With 500 laps in roughly three hours of green-flag racing, the Food City 500 is one of the most physically and mentally demanding short-track tests on the schedule, and the pressure cooker of Bristol almost always reveals which teams can keep their composure when the bumpers start to fly.

The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Historical Context

  • Denny Hamlin has 49 starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with 4 wins and a 14.5 average finish.
  • Ryan Blaney has 30 starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with 2 wins and a 12.4 average finish.
  • Christopher Bell has 21 starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with 4 wins and a 12.1 average finish.

Based on Cup Series results at Bristol Motor Speedway from 1949-2026.

The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the Food City 500 on?

The Food City 500 airs on FS1 on Sunday, April 12, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, broadcast from Bristol Motor Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.

What time does the NASCAR Cup race start this race weekend?

The Food City 500 ran on Sunday, April 12, 2026 with a 3:00 PM ET green flag on FS1.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

NR-Rating Track Rankings
#DriverElo RatingLast Finish
1Kyle Larson
1656
P3
2Ryan Blaney
1646
P2
3Denny Hamlin
1642
P9
4Joey Logano
1605
P7
5Christopher Bell
1595
P27
6Chase Elliott
1582
P22
7William Byron
1560
P30
8Ty Gibbs
1557
P1
9Chase Briscoe
1556
P5
10Brad Keselowski
1535
P14
NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 07:09 AM ET

# Driver Exp. Finish Win %
1 Denny Hamlin Best in Field 6.8 18.6%
2 Ryan Blaney 6.8 17.5%
3 Christopher Bell 8.3 16.2%
4 Chase Briscoe 8.6 15.7%
5 Ty Gibbs 8.6 12.8%
6 Chase Elliott 9.9 11.6%
7 Joey Logano 10.3 9.7%
8 Kyle Larson 10.3 8.4%
9 William Byron 10.8 7.0%
10 Chris Buescher 12.0 6.2%
11 Tyler Reddick 12.0 5.0%
12 Ryan Preece 12.6 4.4%
13 Ross Chastain 12.6 3.5%
14 Bubba Wallace 12.6 3.5%
15 Brad Keselowski 13.8 3.1%
16 Daniel Suarez 14.0 2.8%
17 Austin Cindric 14.0 2.3%
18 Carson Hocevar 15.6 1.7%
19 Alex Bowman 15.6 1.7%
20 Michael McDowell 15.6 1.1%
21 Shane van Gisbergen 17.0 0.9%
22 Austin Dillon 17.7 0.6%
23 Todd Gilliland 17.7 0.6%
24 Erik Jones 17.7 0.5%
25 John Hunter Nemechek 19.0 0.4%
26 Josh Berry 19.0 0.4%
27 A.J. Allmendinger 20.1 0.3%
28 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20.4 0.3%
29 Zane Smith 20.2 0.2%
30 Cole Custer 22.1 0.1%
31 Riley Herbst 21.7 0.1%
32 Ty Dillon 23.1 0.1%
33 Connor Zilisch 23.0 0.1%
34 Noah Gragson 22.1 0.1%
35 Chad Finchum 24.9 0.1%
36 Cody Ware 37.3 0.0%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Anduril 250: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P12

(1/5 top-5 hits)

37% top-5 hit rate across 13 races

Starting Lineup

Grid # Driver
1 12 Ryan Blaney
2 45 Tyler Reddick
3 19 Chase Briscoe
4 35 Riley Herbst
5 54 Ty Gibbs
6 1 Ross Chastain
7 17 Chris Buescher
8 5 Kyle Larson
9 2 Austin Cindric
10 77 Carson Hocevar
11 11 Denny Hamlin
12 23 Bubba Wallace
13 7 Daniel Suarez
14 20 Christopher Bell
15 38 Zane Smith
16 4 Noah Gragson
17 60 Ryan Preece
18 9 Chase Elliott
19 71 Michael McDowell
20 22 Joey Logano
21 6 Brad Keselowski
22 16 A.J. Allmendinger
23 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
24 3 Austin Dillon
25 21 Josh Berry
26 88 Connor Zilisch #
27 48 Alex Bowman
28 43 Erik Jones
29 8 Kyle Busch
30 41 Cole Custer
31 42 John Hunter Nemechek
32 10 Ty Dillon
33 97 Shane van Gisbergen
34 24 William Byron
35 34 Todd Gilliland
36 51 Cody Ware
37 66 Chad Finchum (i)

Track Type Tendencies

short

Bristol Motor Speedway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.

Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.

Fantasy

Dominator Plays
Kyle Larson 2148 laps led
Kyle Busch 1237 laps led
Brad Keselowski 932 laps led

High laps-led totals at this track

Value Picks
Chase Briscoe 12.73 avg, 0 wins
Chase Elliott 12.90 avg, 0 wins
Carson Hocevar 14.00 avg, 0 wins

Strong avg finish but no wins: lower ownership

Explore More