Cup Series Preview

Food City 500

Bristol Motor Speedway
Laps 500 Distance 266.5 mi Type short Coverage FS1 · 3:00 PM ET Stages 125 / 250 / 500
0.533
MI
concrete
Surface
Race Complete
Sunday, April 12, 2026
3:00 PM ET

Bristol Motor Speedway's spring race brings the Cup Series back to the high-banked concrete bullring before the lights and cameras of the August night race steal the headlines. The Food City 500 packs 500 laps into the 0.533-mile half-mile with 24-28 degrees of banking, and the daytime version of Bristol has its own character — different track temperatures, different tire wear curves, and different visibility than the floodlit night race. Goodyear has experimented with tire compounds at Bristol in recent seasons, sometimes producing aggressive fall-off that opens multiple grooves and other times yielding a single-file procession decided entirely by restarts. The 2024 spring race featured one of the most dramatic tire-wear stories in modern Bristol history, with lap-time degradation that hadn't been seen at the bullring in decades, and the strategy execution that day reminded the field how quickly a Bristol race can flip. With 500 laps in roughly three hours of green-flag racing, the Food City 500 is one of the most physically and mentally demanding short-track tests on the schedule, and the pressure cooker of Bristol almost always reveals which teams can keep their composure when the bumpers start to fly.

Band A · The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Historical Context

  • Denny Hamlin has 48 starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with 4 wins and a 14.3 average finish.
  • Ryan Blaney has 28 starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with 2 wins and a 11.6 average finish.
  • Chase Elliott has 29 starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 12.3 average finish.

Based on Cup Series results at Bristol Motor Speedway from 1949-2026.

DID YOU KNOW?

Kyle Busch finishes in the top 10 at Bristol Motor Speedway 63% of the time across 73 starts.

Kyle Busch's track record
LAST TIME HERE

Kyle Busch has led 4,874 laps at Bristol Motor Speedway — more than anyone else.

Kyle Busch's stats
Band B · The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

Band C · The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the Food City 500 on?

The Food City 500 airs on FS1 on Sunday, April 12, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, broadcast from Bristol Motor Speedway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.

What time does the NASCAR Cup race start this race weekend?

The Food City 500 ran on Sunday, April 12, 2026 with a 3:00 PM ET green flag on FS1.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

NR-Rating Track Rankings
#DriverElo RatingLast Finish
1Kyle Larson
1656
P3
2Ryan Blaney
1648
P2
3Denny Hamlin
1623
P9
4Christopher Bell
1594
P27
5Joey Logano
1577
P7
6Chase Elliott
1575
P22
7William Byron
1550
P30
8Ty Gibbs
1544
P1
9Ross Chastain
1539
P20
10Brad Keselowski
1536
P14
NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Wed, May 13, 2026, 07:50 AM ET

# Driver Exp. Finish Win %
1 Denny Hamlin Best in Field 6.8 18.6%
2 Ryan Blaney 6.8 17.5%
3 Chase Elliott 8.3 16.2%
4 Kyle Larson 8.6 13.2%
5 Christopher Bell 8.6 13.2%
6 Tyler Reddick 9.9 11.5%
7 Chris Buescher 10.3 9.5%
8 William Byron 10.3 8.2%
9 Ryan Preece 10.8 7.0%
10 Brad Keselowski 12.0 5.5%
11 Joey Logano 12.1 4.9%
12 Ty Gibbs 12.6 4.3%
13 Chase Briscoe 12.6 3.5%
14 Ross Chastain 13.8 3.4%
15 Bubba Wallace 14.0 2.7%
16 Alex Bowman 14.0 2.7%
17 Carson Hocevar 14.7 2.4%
18 Michael McDowell 15.0 2.1%
19 Daniel Suarez 15.6 1.7%
20 Kyle Busch 15.6 1.3%
21 Austin Dillon 17.0 0.8%
22 Austin Cindric 17.0 0.8%
23 Todd Gilliland 17.1 0.7%
24 Erik Jones 17.7 0.5%
25 Shane van Gisbergen 18.3 0.4%
26 Josh Berry 19.0 0.4%
27 John Hunter Nemechek 20.1 0.3%
28 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20.1 0.3%
29 A.J. Allmendinger 18.3 0.3%
30 Connor Zilisch 21.2 0.2%
31 Zane Smith 20.2 0.2%
32 Chad Finchum 22.1 0.1%
33 Noah Gragson 23.0 0.1%
34 Riley Herbst 22.1 0.1%
35 Cole Custer 23.0 0.1%
36 Ty Dillon 24.3 0.1%
37 Cody Ware 29.8 0.0%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning — higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Go Bowling at The Glen: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P24

(1/5 top-5 hits)

38% top-5 hit rate across 11 races

Starting Lineup

Grid # Driver
1 12 Ryan Blaney
2 45 Tyler Reddick
3 19 Chase Briscoe
4 35 Riley Herbst
5 54 Ty Gibbs
6 1 Ross Chastain
7 17 Chris Buescher
8 5 Kyle Larson
9 2 Austin Cindric
10 77 Carson Hocevar
11 11 Denny Hamlin
12 23 Bubba Wallace
13 7 Daniel Suarez
14 20 Christopher Bell
15 38 Zane Smith
16 4 Noah Gragson
17 60 Ryan Preece
18 9 Chase Elliott
19 71 Michael McDowell
20 22 Joey Logano
21 6 Brad Keselowski
22 16 A.J. Allmendinger
23 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
24 3 Austin Dillon
25 21 Josh Berry
26 88 Connor Zilisch #
27 48 Alex Bowman
28 43 Erik Jones
29 8 Kyle Busch
30 41 Cole Custer
31 42 John Hunter Nemechek
32 10 Ty Dillon
33 97 Shane van Gisbergen
34 24 William Byron
35 34 Todd Gilliland
36 51 Cody Ware
37 66 Chad Finchum (i)

Track Type Tendencies

short

Bristol Motor Speedway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.

Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.

Fantasy

Dominator Plays
Kyle Larson 2148 laps led
Kyle Busch 1237 laps led
Brad Keselowski 932 laps led

High laps-led totals at this track

Value Picks
Carson Hocevar 11.40 avg, 0 wins
Tyler Reddick 11.73 avg, 0 wins
Chase Briscoe 12.45 avg, 0 wins

Strong avg finish but no wins — lower ownership

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