Bass Pro Shops Night Race
Bristol Motor Speedway, September 21, 2024
Kyle Larson
Winner
500
Laps
37
Entries
4
Leaders
Kyle Larson won the 2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 21, 2024, leading 462 of 500 laps. Chase Elliott finished second; Bubba Wallace rounded out the podium. The race featured 4 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 21, 2024
Track
Season
2024
Winner
Leaders
4 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +1 | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 10 | +8 | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 11 | +8 | Bubba Wallace |
| 4 | 8 | +4 | Denny Hamlin |
| 5 | 6 | +1 | Christopher Bell |
| 6 | 22 | +16 | Ryan Blaney |
| 7 | 14 | +7 | Ryan Preece |
| 8 | 5 | -3 | Chase Briscoe |
| 9 | 1 | -8 | Alex Bowman |
| 10 | 12 | +2 | Ross Chastain |
| 11 | 18 | +7 | Michael McDowell |
| 12 | 16 | +4 | Noah Gragson |
| 13 | 27 | +14 | Austin Cindric |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | Chris Buescher |
| 15 | 13 | -2 | Ty Gibbs |
| 16 | 33 | +17 | Zane Smith |
| 17 | 3 | -14 | William Byron |
| 18 | 7 | -11 | Carson Hocevar |
| 19 | 21 | +2 | Daniel Hemric |
| 20 | 15 | -5 | Tyler Reddick |
| 21 | 30 | +9 | Austin Dillon |
| 22 | 26 | +4 | Justin Haley |
| 23 | 19 | -4 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 24 | 4 | -20 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 25 | 29 | +4 | Kyle Busch |
| 26 | 23 | -3 | Brad Keselowski |
| 27 | 31 | +4 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 28 | 20 | -8 | Joey Logano |
| 29 | 25 | -4 | Josh Berry |
| 30 | 32 | +2 | Erik Jones |
| 31 | 35 | +4 | Daniel Suarez |
| 32 | 24 | -8 | Todd Gilliland |
| 33 | 28 | -5 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 34 | 37 | +3 | Josh Bilicki |
| 35 | 34 | -1 | Harrison Burton |
| 36 | 9 | -27 | Corey LaJoie |
| 37 | 36 | -1 | Kaz Grala |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 1 | 1 | — | 20 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 4 | 2 | — | 16 |
| Christopher Bell | 3 | 5 | — | 14 |
| Denny Hamlin | 6 | 3 | — | 13 |
| Alex Bowman | 2 | 7 | — | 13 |
| Chase Briscoe | 7 | 8 | — | 7 |
| Tyler Reddick | — | 4 | — | 7 |
| Bubba Wallace | 10 | 6 | — | 6 |
| William Byron | 5 | — | — | 6 |
| Chase Elliott | 9 | 10 | — | 3 |
| Ty Gibbs | 8 | — | — | 3 |
| Ryan Blaney | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Noah Gragson | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Cindric | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Zane Smith | — | — | — | — |
| Carson Hocevar | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hemric | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Haley | — | — | — | — |
| A.J. Allmendinger | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Brad Keselowski | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Logano | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Berry | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Todd Gilliland | — | — | — | — |
| John Hunter Nemechek | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Harrison Burton | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Kaz Grala | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 33 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.0 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 1 | +9.3 |
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 2 | +7.9 |
| 3 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 3 | +9.6 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 4 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Christopher Bell | 8.3 | 5 | +3.3 |
| 6 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 6 | +0.8 |
| 7 | Ryan Preece | 12.6 | 7 | +5.6 |
| 8 | Chase Briscoe | 8.6 | 8 | +0.6 |
| 9 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 9 | +6.6 |
| 10 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 10 | +2.6 |
| 11 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 11 | +4.6 |
| 12 | Noah Gragson | 22.1 | 12 | +10.1 |
| 13 | Austin Cindric | 14.0 | 13 | +1.0 |
| 14 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 14 | -2.0 |
| 15 | Ty Gibbs | 8.6 | 15 | -6.4 |
| 16 | Zane Smith | 20.2 | 16 | +4.2 |
| 17 | William Byron | 10.8 | 17 | -6.2 |
| 18 | Carson Hocevar | 15.6 | 18 | -2.4 |
| 20 | Tyler Reddick | 12.0 | 20 | -8.0 |
| 21 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 21 | -3.3 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Larson: has 35 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 9.9 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 49 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P4 on the day.
- Noah Gragson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P12 vs predicted P22. Track history: 14 starts, 17.7 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race?
Kyle Larson won the 2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race held?
The 2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 21, 2024.