Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race

Bristol Motor Speedway, August 19, 2017

Kyle Busch
Winner
500
Laps
40
Entries
6
Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2017 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 19, 2017, leading 156 of 500 laps. Erik Jones finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, August 19, 2017
Season
2017
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 18 +17 Kyle Busch
2 1 -1 Erik Jones
3 7 +4 Denny Hamlin
4 5 +1 Matt Kenseth
5 25 +20 Kurt Busch
6 13 +7 Ryan Newman
7 20 +13 Trevor Bayne
8 29 +21 Kevin Harvick
9 2 -7 Kyle Larson
10 10 Ryan Blaney
11 21 +10 Jimmie Johnson
12 11 -1 Jamie McMurray
13 8 -5 Joey Logano
14 14 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
15 12 -3 Daniel Suarez
16 27 +11 Paul Menard
17 19 +2 David Ragan
18 4 -14 Chase Elliott
19 9 -10 Clint Bowyer
20 26 +6 Michael McDowell
21 6 -15 Martin Truex, Jr.
22 23 +1 A.J. Allmendinger
23 31 +8 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
24 3 -21 Kasey Kahne
25 24 -1 Danica Patrick
26 34 +8 Matt DiBenedetto
27 15 -12 Chris Buescher
28 35 +7 Corey LaJoie
29 17 -12 Brad Keselowski
30 30 J.J. Yeley
31 37 +6 Gray Gaulding
32 36 +4 B.J. McLeod
33 32 -1 Cole Whitt
34 40 +6 Joey Gase
35 33 -2 Landon Cassill
36 22 -14 Ty Dillon
37 28 -9 Aric Almirola
38 39 +1 Reed Sorenson
39 16 -23 Austin Dillon
40 38 -2 Jeffrey Earnhardt
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 20 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.6 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
2 Erik Jones 17.7 2 +15.7
3 Denny Hamlin 6.8 3 +3.8
9 Kyle Larson 10.3 9 +1.3
10 Ryan Blaney 6.8 10 -3.2
11 Jimmie Johnson 18.0 11 +7.0
13 Joey Logano 10.3 13 -2.7
14 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20.4 14 +6.4
15 Daniel Suarez 14.0 15 -1.0
18 Chase Elliott 9.9 18 -8.1
20 Michael McDowell 15.6 20 -4.4
21 Martin Truex, Jr. 14.0 21 -7.0
22 A.J. Allmendinger 20.1 22 -1.9
27 Chris Buescher 12.0 27 -15.0
28 Corey LaJoie 24.9 28 -3.1
29 Brad Keselowski 13.8 29 -15.2
30 J.J. Yeley 27.3 30 -2.7
32 B.J. McLeod 24.9 32 -7.1
34 Joey Gase 22.0 34 -12.0
36 Ty Dillon 23.1 36 -12.9
39 Austin Dillon 17.7 39 -21.3

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Kyle Busch: has 76 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 12.3 avg finish (20 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 49 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
  • Erik Jones: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P18. Track history: 26 starts, 15.9 avg finish.

Explore More

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2017 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race?
Kyle Busch won the 2017 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2017 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race held?
The 2017 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 19, 2017.