NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT BRISTOL

Bristol Motor Speedway — April 19, 2015

Matt Kenseth

Winner

511

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Matt Kenseth won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway on April 19, 2015, leading 47 of 511 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Jeff Gordon rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, April 19, 2015

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2015

Winner

Matt Kenseth

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Matt Kenseth	511	—	Running	47	47
2	28	+26	Jimmie Johnson	511	—	Running	—	42
3	23	+20	Jeff Gordon	511	—	Running	—	41
4	25	+21	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	511	—	Running	—	40
5	18	+13	Ryan Newman	511	—	Running	—	39
6	21	+15	Tony Stewart	511	—	Running	—	38
7	14	+7	Kyle Larson	511	—	Running	90	38
8	15	+7	Justin Allgaier	511	—	Running	—	36
9	26	+17	Danica Patrick	511	—	Running	—	35
10	12	+2	Austin Dillon	511	—	Running	—	34
11	9	-2	Paul Menard	511	—	Running	—	33
12	37	+25	Clint Bowyer	511	—	Running	—	32
13	30	+17	Aric Almirola	511	—	Running	—	31
14	10	-4	Jamie McMurray	510	—	Running	—	30
15	7	-8	Kurt Busch	510	—	Running	98	30
16	13	-3	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	509	—	Running	—	28
17	24	+7	Brett Moffitt	509	—	Running	—	27
18	32	+14	David Gilliland	508	—	Running	—	26
19	39	+20	Sam Hornish Jr.	508	—	Running	—	25
20	40	+20	Alex Bowman	508	—	Running	—	24
21	22	+1	Matt DiBenedetto	508	—	Running	—	23
22	19	-3	Michael McDowell	507	—	Running	—	22
23	36	+13	Michael Annett	507	—	Running	—	21
24	3	-21	Carl Edwards	507	—	Running	86	21
25	38	+13	Chris Buescher	505	—	Running	—	0
26	5	-21	Denny Hamlin	505	—	Running	—	18
27	42	+15	Cole Whitt	504	—	Running	—	17
28	31	+3	Trevor Bayne	504	—	Running	—	16
29	16	-13	Martin Truex, Jr.	504	—	Running	—	15
30	33	+3	Greg Biffle	504	—	Running	6	15
31	41	+10	Mike Bliss	502	—	Running	—	0
32	29	-3	J.J. Yeley	496	—	Running	—	0
33	43	+10	Alex Kennedy	490	—	Running	—	11
34	20	-14	A.J. Allmendinger	489	—	Running	—	10
35	2	-33	Brad Keselowski	489	—	Running	—	9
36	27	-9	Casey Mears	487	—	Running	—	8
37	8	-29	Kasey Kahne	482	—	Running	—	7
38	4	-34	Kevin Harvick	468	—	Running	184	8
39	35	-4	Josh Wise	466	—	Running	—	5
40	6	-34	Joey Logano	452	—	Running	—	4
41	11	-30	David Ragan	435	—	Running	—	3
42	34	-8	Jeb Burton	416	—	DNF	—	2
43	17	-26	Landon Cassill	288	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	2	+15.7	Moderate
4	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.1	4	+16.1	Moderate
7	Kyle Larson	8.6	7	+1.6	Moderate
8	Justin Allgaier	17.7	8	+9.7	Moderate
10	Austin Dillon	17.0	10	+7.0	Coinflip
20	Alex Bowman	14.0	20	-6.0	Coinflip
22	Michael McDowell	15.0	22	-7.0	Coinflip
25	Chris Buescher	10.3	25	-14.7	Moderate
26	Denny Hamlin	6.8	26	-19.2	High Confidence
29	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	29	-15.2	Coinflip
32	J.J. Yeley	28.1	32	-3.9	High Confidence
34	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	34	-15.7	Moderate
35	Brad Keselowski	12.0	35	-23.0	Coinflip
36	Casey Mears	18.0	36	-18.0	Moderate
40	Joey Logano	12.1	40	-27.9	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Matt Kenseth: has 57 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 13.8 avg finish (7 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P26 on the day.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P20. Track history: 24 starts, 14.1 avg finish.

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