Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race
Bristol Motor Speedway, September 19, 2020
Kevin Harvick
Winner
500
Laps
40
Entries
8
Leaders
Kevin Harvick won the 2020 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 19, 2020, leading 226 of 500 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Erik Jones rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, September 19, 2020
Track
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | +3 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2 | 9 | +7 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 20 | +17 | Erik Jones |
| 4 | 17 | +13 | Tyler Reddick |
| 5 | 10 | +5 | Aric Almirola |
| 6 | 11 | +5 | Clint Bowyer |
| 7 | 6 | -1 | Chase Elliott |
| 8 | 23 | +15 | Chris Buescher |
| 9 | 22 | +13 | Ryan Preece |
| 10 | 26 | +16 | Michael McDowell |
| 11 | 2 | -9 | Joey Logano |
| 12 | 5 | -7 | Austin Dillon |
| 13 | 14 | +1 | Ryan Blaney |
| 14 | 19 | +5 | Matt Kenseth |
| 15 | 13 | -2 | Kurt Busch |
| 16 | 8 | -8 | Alex Bowman |
| 17 | 24 | +7 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 18 | 28 | +10 | Ty Dillon |
| 19 | 16 | -3 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 20 | 31 | +11 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 21 | 7 | -14 | Denny Hamlin |
| 22 | 27 | +5 | Bubba Wallace |
| 23 | 12 | -11 | Cole Custer |
| 24 | 3 | -21 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 25 | 25 | — | Ryan Newman |
| 26 | 29 | +3 | Daniel Suarez |
| 27 | 37 | +10 | Gray Gaulding |
| 28 | 18 | -10 | Christopher Bell |
| 29 | 33 | +4 | Quin Houff |
| 30 | 32 | +2 | J.J. Yeley |
| 31 | 36 | +5 | Joey Gase |
| 32 | 40 | +8 | Garrett Smithley |
| 33 | 30 | -3 | Corey LaJoie |
| 34 | 1 | -33 | Brad Keselowski |
| 35 | 35 | — | James Davison |
| 36 | 34 | -2 | Reed Sorenson |
| 37 | 38 | +1 | Timmy Hill |
| 38 | 15 | -23 | William Byron |
| 39 | 39 | — | Josh Bilicki |
| 40 | 21 | -19 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | 2 | 1 | — | 19 |
| Chase Elliott | 1 | 3 | — | 18 |
| Kevin Harvick | 3 | 2 | — | 17 |
| Alex Bowman | 4 | 6 | — | 12 |
| Kurt Busch | 6 | 5 | — | 11 |
| Joey Logano | 9 | 4 | — | 9 |
| Christopher Bell | 5 | — | — | 6 |
| Aric Almirola | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Brad Keselowski | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Clint Bowyer | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| William Byron | 8 | — | — | 3 |
| Erik Jones | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Austin Dillon | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Bubba Wallace | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Tyler Reddick | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Blaney | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Kenseth | — | — | — | — |
| Jimmie Johnson | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| John Hunter Nemechek | — | — | — | — |
| Denny Hamlin | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Gray Gaulding | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| James Davison | — | — | — | — |
| Reed Sorenson | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 27 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.8 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 3 | +14.7 |
| 4 | Tyler Reddick | 12.0 | 4 | +8.0 |
| 7 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 7 | +2.9 |
| 8 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 8 | +4.0 |
| 9 | Ryan Preece | 12.6 | 9 | +3.6 |
| 10 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 10 | +5.6 |
| 11 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 11 | -0.7 |
| 12 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 12 | +5.7 |
| 13 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 13 | -6.2 |
| 16 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 16 | -0.4 |
| 17 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.0 | 17 | +1.0 |
| 18 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 18 | +5.1 |
| 20 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.0 | 20 | -1.0 |
| 21 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 21 | -14.2 |
| 22 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 22 | -9.4 |
| 23 | Cole Custer | 22.1 | 23 | -0.9 |
| 24 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 24 | -10.0 |
| 26 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 26 | -12.0 |
| 28 | Christopher Bell | 8.3 | 28 | -19.7 |
| 30 | J.J. Yeley | 27.3 | 30 | -2.7 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kevin Harvick: has 78 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.4 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 30 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 12.4 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P13 on the day.
- Erik Jones: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P18. Track history: 26 starts, 15.9 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race?
Kevin Harvick won the 2020 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for Stewart-Haas Racing.
Where was the 2020 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race held?
The 2020 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 19, 2020.