Season Finale 500
Phoenix Raceway, November 8, 2020
Chase Elliott
Winner
312
Laps
39
Entries
9
Leaders
Chase Elliott won the 2020 Season Finale 500 at Phoenix Raceway on November 8, 2020, leading 153 of 312 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 8, 2020
Track
Season
2020
Winner
Leaders
9 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Chase Elliott |
| 2 | 3 | +1 | Brad Keselowski |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | Joey Logano |
| 4 | 4 | — | Denny Hamlin |
| 5 | 26 | +21 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 6 | 5 | -1 | Ryan Blaney |
| 7 | 11 | +4 | Kevin Harvick |
| 8 | 12 | +4 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 9 | 25 | +16 | William Byron |
| 10 | 13 | +3 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 11 | 8 | -3 | Kyle Busch |
| 12 | 7 | -5 | Kurt Busch |
| 13 | 10 | -3 | Aric Almirola |
| 14 | 9 | -5 | Clint Bowyer |
| 15 | 23 | +8 | Bubba Wallace |
| 16 | 6 | -10 | Alex Bowman |
| 17 | 17 | — | Christopher Bell |
| 18 | 18 | — | Austin Dillon |
| 19 | 21 | +2 | Tyler Reddick |
| 20 | 31 | +11 | Chris Buescher |
| 21 | 22 | +1 | Ty Dillon |
| 22 | 14 | -8 | Erik Jones |
| 23 | 29 | +6 | Michael McDowell |
| 24 | 19 | -5 | Ryan Newman |
| 25 | 16 | -9 | Matt Kenseth |
| 26 | 27 | +1 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 27 | 20 | -7 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 28 | 15 | -13 | Cole Custer |
| 29 | 35 | +6 | Brennan Poole |
| 30 | 32 | +2 | J.J. Yeley |
| 31 | 30 | -1 | Daniel Suarez |
| 32 | 37 | +5 | Joey Gase |
| 33 | 36 | +3 | James Davison |
| 34 | 24 | -10 | Ryan Preece |
| 35 | 38 | +3 | Josh Bilicki |
| 36 | 33 | -3 | Timmy Hill |
| 37 | 39 | +2 | Garrett Smithley |
| 38 | 28 | -10 | Corey LaJoie |
| 39 | 34 | -5 | Quin Houff |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | 5 | 5 | — | 12 |
| Kyle Busch | 6 | 8 | — | 8 |
| Kurt Busch | 9 | 7 | — | 6 |
| Jimmie Johnson | — | 6 | — | 5 |
| Alex Bowman | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 10 | 9 | — | 3 |
| Clint Bowyer | 8 | — | — | 3 |
| William Byron | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Chase Elliott | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| Brad Keselowski | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| Joey Logano | 1 | 3 | — | — |
| Denny Hamlin | 2 | 4 | — | — |
| Kevin Harvick | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Bell | — | — | — | — |
| Austin Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Reddick | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Jones | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Matt Kenseth | — | — | — | — |
| John Hunter Nemechek | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Custer | — | — | — | — |
| Brennan Poole | — | — | — | — |
| J.J. Yeley | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| James Davison | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bilicki | — | — | — | — |
| Timmy Hill | — | — | — | — |
| Garrett Smithley | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| Quin Houff | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 28 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.2 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 1 | +8.9 |
| 2 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 2 | +11.8 |
| 3 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 3 | +7.3 |
| 4 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 4 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.0 | 5 | +13.0 |
| 6 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 6 | +0.8 |
| 9 | William Byron | 10.8 | 9 | +1.8 |
| 10 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 10 | +4.0 |
| 15 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 16 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 16 | -0.4 |
| 17 | Christopher Bell | 8.3 | 17 | -8.7 |
| 18 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 18 | -0.3 |
| 19 | Tyler Reddick | 12.0 | 19 | -7.0 |
| 20 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 20 | -8.0 |
| 21 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 21 | +2.1 |
| 22 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 22 | -4.3 |
| 23 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 23 | -7.4 |
| 26 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.0 | 26 | -7.0 |
| 27 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 27 | -6.6 |
| 28 | Cole Custer | 22.1 | 28 | -5.9 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Chase Elliott: has 19 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 12.9 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 28 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 10.6 avg finish (1 win), finishing P4 on the day.
- Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P18. Track history: 12 starts, 18.4 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2020 Season Finale 500?
Chase Elliott won the 2020 Season Finale 500 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2020 Season Finale 500 held?
The 2020 Season Finale 500 was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 8, 2020.