Can-Am 500
Phoenix Raceway — November 12, 2017
Matt Kenseth
Winner
312
Laps
22
Entries
5
Leaders
Matt Kenseth won the 2017 Can-Am 500 at Phoenix Raceway on November 12, 2017, leading 62 of 312 laps. Chase Elliott finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 12, 2017
Track
Season
2017
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | +21 | Matt Kenseth |
| 2 | 2 | — | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 3 | — | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 4 | 14 | +10 | Erik Jones |
| 5 | 10 | +5 | Kevin Harvick |
| 6 | 8 | +2 | Jamie McMurray |
| 7 | 7 | — | Kyle Busch |
| 8 | 19 | +11 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 9 | 18 | +9 | Aric Almirola |
| 10 | 20 | +10 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 11 | 24 | +13 | Ty Dillon |
| 12 | 5 | -7 | Joey Logano |
| 13 | 9 | -4 | Clint Bowyer |
| 14 | 21 | +7 | Austin Dillon |
| 15 | 26 | +11 | Paul Menard |
| 16 | 4 | -12 | Brad Keselowski |
| 17 | 6 | -11 | Ryan Blaney |
| 18 | 23 | +5 | Daniel Suarez |
| 19 | 17 | -2 | Kasey Kahne |
| 20 | 13 | -7 | Ryan Newman |
| 35 | 16 | -19 | Denny Hamlin |
| 40 | 1 | -39 | Kyle Larson |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 2 | 1 | — | 19 |
| Joey Logano | 4 | 2 | — | 16 |
| Kyle Larson | 1 | 7 | — | 14 |
| Erik Jones | 3 | 6 | — | 13 |
| Jamie McMurray | 7 | 5 | — | 10 |
| Kevin Harvick | 12 | 4 | — | 7 |
| Denny Hamlin | 8 | 8 | — | 6 |
| Chase Elliott | 6 | 12 | — | 5 |
| Kyle Busch | 10 | 19 | — | 1 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 14 | 10 | — | 1 |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 13 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 2 | +6.3 |
| 3 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 3 | +10.8 |
| 4 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 4 | +13.7 |
| 7 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 7 | +8.6 |
| 8 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 8 | +12.1 |
| 11 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 11 | +13.3 |
| 12 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 12 | +0.1 |
| 14 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 14 | +3.0 |
| 16 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 16 | -4.0 |
| 17 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 17 | -10.2 |
| 18 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 18 | -2.4 |
| 35 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 35 | -28.2 |
| 40 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 40 | -31.4 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Matt Kenseth: has 13 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 7.2 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 20 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 7.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P17 on the day.
- Erik Jones: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P18. Track history: 18 starts, 15.0 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2017 Can-Am 500?
Matt Kenseth won the 2017 Can-Am 500 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2017 Can-Am 500 held?
The 2017 Can-Am 500 was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 12, 2017.