Can-Am 500
Phoenix Raceway, November 12, 2017
Matt Kenseth
Winner
312
Laps
40
Entries
5
Leaders
Matt Kenseth won the 2017 Can-Am 500 at Phoenix Raceway on November 12, 2017, leading 62 of 312 laps. Chase Elliott finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 12, 2017
Track
Season
2017
Winner
Leaders
5 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | +6 | Matt Kenseth |
| 2 | 4 | +2 | Chase Elliott |
| 3 | 5 | +2 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 4 | 11 | +7 | Erik Jones |
| 5 | 6 | +1 | Kevin Harvick |
| 6 | 13 | +7 | Jamie McMurray |
| 7 | 8 | +1 | Kyle Busch |
| 8 | 27 | +19 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 9 | 22 | +13 | Aric Almirola |
| 10 | 14 | +4 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 11 | 29 | +18 | Ty Dillon |
| 12 | 9 | -3 | Joey Logano |
| 13 | 20 | +7 | Clint Bowyer |
| 14 | 21 | +7 | Austin Dillon |
| 15 | 19 | +4 | Paul Menard |
| 16 | 16 | — | Brad Keselowski |
| 17 | 1 | -16 | Ryan Blaney |
| 18 | 10 | -8 | Daniel Suarez |
| 19 | 17 | -2 | Kasey Kahne |
| 20 | 18 | -2 | Ryan Newman |
| 21 | 15 | -6 | Kurt Busch |
| 22 | 28 | +6 | Michael McDowell |
| 23 | 23 | — | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 24 | 32 | +8 | Landon Cassill |
| 25 | 24 | -1 | Danica Patrick |
| 26 | 37 | +11 | D.J. Kennington |
| 27 | 30 | +3 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 28 | 36 | +8 | David Starr |
| 29 | 38 | +9 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 30 | 35 | +5 | Joey Gase |
| 31 | 33 | +2 | Corey LaJoie |
| 32 | 40 | +8 | Derrike Cope |
| 33 | 26 | -7 | David Ragan |
| 34 | 39 | +5 | Kyle Weatherman |
| 35 | 2 | -33 | Denny Hamlin |
| 36 | 34 | -2 | Cole Whitt |
| 37 | 31 | -6 | Chris Buescher |
| 38 | 25 | -13 | Trevor Bayne |
| 39 | 12 | -27 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 40 | 3 | -37 | Kyle Larson |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 19 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 2 | +7.9 |
| 3 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 3 | +11.0 |
| 4 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 4 | +13.7 |
| 8 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 8 | +12.4 |
| 11 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 11 | +12.1 |
| 12 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 12 | -1.7 |
| 14 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 14 | +3.7 |
| 16 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 16 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 17 | -10.2 |
| 18 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 18 | -4.0 |
| 22 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 22 | -6.4 |
| 23 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20.1 | 23 | -2.9 |
| 28 | David Starr | 20.2 | 28 | -7.8 |
| 30 | Joey Gase | 22.0 | 30 | -8.0 |
| 31 | Corey LaJoie | 24.9 | 31 | -6.1 |
| 35 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 35 | -28.2 |
| 37 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 37 | -25.0 |
| 39 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.0 | 39 | -21.0 |
| 40 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 40 | -29.7 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Matt Kenseth: has 15 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 10.3 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 22 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 9.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P17 on the day.
- Erik Jones: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P18. Track history: 22 starts, 16.0 avg finish.
Explore More
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2017 Can-Am 500?
Matt Kenseth won the 2017 Can-Am 500 at Phoenix Raceway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2017 Can-Am 500 held?
The 2017 Can-Am 500 was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 12, 2017.