NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race
Phoenix Raceway — November 7, 2021
Kyle Larson
Winner
312
Laps
20
Entries
7
Leaders
Kyle Larson won the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway on November 7, 2021, leading 107 of 312 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 7, 2021
Track
Season
2021
Winner
Leaders
7 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | +5 | Kyle Larson |
| 2 | 1 | -1 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | Denny Hamlin |
| 4 | 7 | +3 | Ryan Blaney |
| 5 | 3 | -2 | Chase Elliott |
| 6 | 22 | +16 | Aric Almirola |
| 7 | 10 | +3 | Kyle Busch |
| 8 | 9 | +1 | Kevin Harvick |
| 9 | 8 | -1 | Christopher Bell |
| 10 | 20 | +10 | Brad Keselowski |
| 11 | 5 | -6 | Joey Logano |
| 12 | 16 | +4 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 13 | 21 | +8 | Cole Custer |
| 14 | 18 | +4 | Ross Chastain |
| 15 | 11 | -4 | Austin Dillon |
| 16 | 17 | +1 | Kurt Busch |
| 17 | 4 | -13 | William Byron |
| 18 | 24 | +6 | Alex Bowman |
| 19 | 13 | -6 | Tyler Reddick |
| 20 | 25 | +5 | Ryan Preece |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 1 | 1 | — | 20 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 2 | 2 | — | 18 |
| Joey Logano | 3 | 3 | — | 16 |
| Alex Bowman | 7 | 4 | — | 11 |
| William Byron | 4 | 8 | — | 10 |
| Kevin Harvick | 10 | 5 | — | 7 |
| Christopher Bell | 6 | 9 | — | 7 |
| Ryan Blaney | 5 | 19 | — | 6 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 18 | 6 | — | 5 |
| Kyle Busch | 11 | 7 | — | 4 |
| Austin Dillon | 8 | 11 | — | 3 |
| Brad Keselowski | 9 | 16 | — | 2 |
| Aric Almirola | 12 | 10 | — | 1 |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 5.2 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 1 | +7.6 |
| 2 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 2 | +11.8 |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 3 | +3.8 |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 4 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 5 | +3.3 |
| 7 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 7 | +8.6 |
| 9 | Christopher Bell | 8.6 | 9 | -0.4 |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 10 | +2.0 |
| 11 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 11 | +1.1 |
| 13 | Cole Custer | 23.0 | 13 | +10.0 |
| 14 | Ross Chastain | 13.8 | 14 | -0.2 |
| 15 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 15 | +2.0 |
| 17 | William Byron | 10.3 | 17 | -6.7 |
| 18 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 18 | -4.0 |
| 19 | Tyler Reddick | 9.9 | 19 | -9.1 |
| 20 | Ryan Preece | 10.8 | 20 | -9.2 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kyle Larson: has 22 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 11.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 29 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with a 11.5 avg finish (1 win), finishing P3 on the day.
- Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P14. Track history: 17 starts, 11.8 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race?
Kyle Larson won the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway driving for Hendrick Motorsports.
Where was the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race held?
The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race was held at Phoenix Raceway on November 7, 2021.