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NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship Race

Homestead-Miami Speedway
Laps 200 Distance 300 mi Type intermediate Coverage CW · 5:00 PM ET
1.5
MI
asphalt
Surface
Race Date
Saturday, November 7, 2026
5:00 PM ET
The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Historical Context

  • Denny Hamlin has 27 starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with 3 wins and a 10.5 average finish.
  • Christopher Bell has 12 starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with 1 win and a 13.3 average finish.
  • Ryan Blaney has 18 starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 13.6 average finish.

Based on O'Reilly Series results at Homestead-Miami Speedway from 1982-2026.

The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship Race on?

The NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship Race airs on CW on Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET, broadcast from Homestead-Miami Speedway. All 2026 NASCAR Xfinity (O'Reilly Auto Parts) Series races air exclusively on The CW, which is free over-the-air with a digital antenna.

What time does the NASCAR Xfinity race start today?

The NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship Race green flag is set for 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 7, 2026, airing on CW. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

NR-Rating Track Rankings
# Driver Elo Rating Last Finish
1 Denny Hamlin
1678
P5
2 Chase Briscoe
1600
P4
3 Christopher Bell
1576
P29
4 Ryan Blaney
1565
P36
5 Bubba Wallace
1559
P3
6 William Byron
1554
P12
7 Chase Elliott
1550
P18
8 Tyler Reddick
1550
P8
9 Chris Buescher
1548
P6
10 Kyle Larson
1545
P1
NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 07:16 AM ET

# Driver Exp. Finish Win %
1 Denny Hamlin Best in Field 6.2 18.2%
2 Christopher Bell 7.8 17.8%
3 Ryan Blaney 8.2 16.3%
4 Chase Briscoe 9.2 15.5%
5 Ty Gibbs 9.2 12.8%
6 Kyle Larson 10.1 11.1%
7 Bubba Wallace 10.7 9.9%
8 Tyler Reddick 10.7 8.8%
9 Joey Logano 11.2 7.4%
10 William Byron 11.2 7.4%
11 Chase Elliott 11.9 5.5%
12 Chris Buescher 12.7 5.1%
13 Ryan Preece 13.1 4.7%
14 Daniel Suarez 13.2 4.0%
15 Austin Cindric 13.3 3.6%
16 Carson Hocevar 14.0 3.1%
17 Ross Chastain 14.5 3.1%
18 Brad Keselowski 15.4 2.4%
19 Alex Bowman 15.4 2.2%
20 Erik Jones 15.4 1.9%
21 Michael McDowell 17.0 1.2%
22 Austin Dillon 17.1 0.9%
23 Todd Gilliland 18.3 0.8%
24 A.J. Allmendinger 18.3 0.7%
25 John Hunter Nemechek 18.3 0.5%
26 Shane van Gisbergen 19.1 0.5%
27 Casey Mears 19.1 0.4%
28 Jimmie Johnson 19.9 0.4%
29 Kevin Magnussen 19.9 0.3%
30 Josh Berry 19.9 0.3%
31 Zane Smith 20.9 0.2%
32 Noah Gragson 22.9 0.1%
33 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 21.4 0.1%
34 Riley Herbst 22.9 0.1%
35 Katherine Legge 22.9 0.1%
36 Cole Custer 21.4 0.1%
37 Ty Dillon 23.9 0.1%
38 B.J. McLeod 24.7 0.0%
39 Connor Zilisch 25.7 0.0%
40 Cody Ware 58.0 0.0%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Enjoy Illinois 300: Model picked Denny Hamlin at P1 → Actual P9

(0/5 top-5 hits)

35% top-5 hit rate across 8 races

Track Type Tendencies

intermediate

Intermediate tracks like Homestead-Miami Speedway reward the complete package: car setup, pit strategy, and driver consistency all factor in. These are the races where elite teams separate themselves.

Track position and tire management are critical, especially in long green-flag runs.

Fantasy

Dominator Plays
Cole Custer 473 laps led
Kyle Larson 438 laps led
Daniel Suarez 133 laps led

High laps-led totals at this track

Consistency Plays
Kyle Larson 3.40 avg
Daniel Suarez 3.50 avg
Sam Mayer 4.25 avg

50%+ top-5 rate at this track

Value Picks
Jesse Love 5.00 avg, 0 wins
Austin Dillon 6.00 avg, 0 wins
Trevor Bayne 7.33 avg, 0 wins

Strong avg finish but no wins: lower ownership

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