O'Reilly Series Preview Saturday, November 7, 2026

NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship Race

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Laps 200 Distance 300 mi Type intermediate Coverage CW · 5:00 PM ET

1.5

asphalt

Surface

Race Date

Saturday, November 7, 2026

5:00 PM ET

Pre-Race Race Day Post-Race

The Hook

Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.

Your Drivers' Outlook

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin has 27 starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with 3 wins and a 10.5 average finish.
Christopher Bell has 12 starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with 1 win and a 13.3 average finish.
Ryan Blaney has 18 starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 13.6 average finish.

Based on O'Reilly Series results at Homestead-Miami Speedway from 1982-2026.

The Story

The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.

The Data

Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.

TV & Start Time

What channel is the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship Race on?

The NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship Race airs on CW on Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET, broadcast from Homestead-Miami Speedway. All 2026 NASCAR Xfinity (O'Reilly Auto Parts) Series races air exclusively on The CW, which is free over-the-air with a digital antenna.

What time does the NASCAR Xfinity race start today?

The NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship Race green flag is set for 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 7, 2026, airing on CW. All NASCAR start times are listed in Eastern Time.

NR-Rating Track Rankings

#	Driver	Badge	Elo Rating	Starts	Wins	Last Finish
1	Denny Hamlin	Prev Winner	1678	14	2	P5 (2025)
2	Chase Briscoe		1600	5	0	P4 (2025)
3	Christopher Bell	Prev Winner	1576	6	1	P29 (2025)
4	Ryan Blaney		1565	11	0	P36 (2025)
5	Bubba Wallace		1559	7	0	P3 (2025)
6	William Byron	Prev Winner	1554	8	1	P12 (2025)
7	Chase Elliott		1550	10	0	P18 (2025)
8	Tyler Reddick	Prev Winner	1550	6	1	P8 (2025)
9	Chris Buescher		1548	10	0	P6 (2025)
10	Kyle Larson	Prev Winner	1545	12	2	P1 (2025)

NR-Rating: Elo-based rating from the NR-Rating prediction model. Higher = stronger at this track type. = Previous winner at this track

NR-Rating Predictions

Last updated: Mon, Sep 28, 2026, 07:16 AM ET

#	Driver	Tier	Exp. Finish	Win %	Top 5 %	Top 10 %
1	Denny Hamlin Best in Field	Favorite	6.2	18.2%	58.6%	76.5%
2	Christopher Bell	Favorite	7.8	17.8%	58.4%	76.5%
3	Ryan Blaney	Favorite	8.2	16.3%	55.9%	74.6%
4	Chase Briscoe	Favorite	9.2	15.5%	54.2%	73.0%
5	Ty Gibbs	Favorite	9.2	12.8%	49.3%	69.3%
6	Kyle Larson	Favorite	10.1	11.1%	46.6%	67.3%
7	Bubba Wallace	Contender	10.7	9.9%	43.8%	65.4%
8	Tyler Reddick	Contender	10.7	8.8%	41.5%	63.4%
9	Joey Logano	Contender	11.2	7.4%	37.9%	60.3%
10	William Byron	Contender	11.2	7.4%	37.9%	60.3%
11	Chase Elliott	Contender	11.9	5.5%	33.7%	57.5%
12	Chris Buescher	Contender	12.7	5.1%	31.7%	55.8%
13	Ryan Preece	Contender	13.1	4.7%	28.7%	53.8%
14	Daniel Suarez	Contender	13.2	4.0%	26.9%	51.9%
15	Austin Cindric	Mid-Pack	13.3	3.6%	25.0%	50.1%
16	Carson Hocevar	Mid-Pack	14.0	3.1%	22.7%	47.9%
17	Ross Chastain	Mid-Pack	14.5	3.1%	21.5%	47.1%
18	Brad Keselowski	Mid-Pack	15.4	2.4%	17.5%	41.8%
19	Alex Bowman	Mid-Pack	15.4	2.2%	16.4%	40.5%
20	Erik Jones	Mid-Pack	15.4	1.9%	14.9%	38.8%
21	Michael McDowell	Mid-Pack	17.0	1.2%	11.6%	32.5%
22	Austin Dillon	Mid-Pack	17.1	0.9%	10.4%	30.4%
23	Todd Gilliland	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.8%	9.6%	28.6%
24	A.J. Allmendinger	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.7%	8.4%	27.0%
25	John Hunter Nemechek	Mid-Pack	18.3	0.5%	7.3%	24.6%
26	Shane van Gisbergen	Mid-Pack	19.1	0.5%	6.5%	22.5%
27	Casey Mears	Dark Horse	19.1	0.4%	5.8%	21.1%
28	Jimmie Johnson	Dark Horse	19.9	0.4%	5.3%	20.2%
29	Kevin Magnussen	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.7%	18.5%
30	Josh Berry	Dark Horse	19.9	0.3%	4.6%	18.6%
31	Zane Smith	Dark Horse	20.9	0.2%	3.6%	15.6%
32	Noah Gragson	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.0%	10.4%
33	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.4%	13.0%
34	Riley Herbst	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.1%	11.6%
35	Katherine Legge	Dark Horse	22.9	0.1%	2.1%	11.7%
36	Cole Custer	Dark Horse	21.4	0.1%	2.5%	13.0%
37	Ty Dillon	Dark Horse	23.9	0.1%	1.5%	8.8%
38	B.J. McLeod	Dark Horse	24.7	0.0%	1.1%	7.4%
39	Connor Zilisch	Dark Horse	25.7	0.0%	0.6%	5.7%
40	Cody Ware	Dark Horse	58.0	0.0%	0.1%	1.3%

Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.

Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)

Prediction Scorecard

Enjoy Illinois 300: Model picked Denny Hamlin at P1 → Actual P9

(0/5 top-5 hits)

35% top-5 hit rate across 8 races

History at Homestead-Miami Speedway

O'Reilly Series data from 1982-2026 (15 races)

Recent Results

Year	Race	Winner	Margin	Laps Led
2025	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami	Justin Allgaier	—	21
2024	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami	Austin Hill	—	82
2023	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami	Sam Mayer	—	46
2022	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami	Noah Gragson	—	127
2021	NASCAR Xfinity Series at Miami	Myatt Snider	—	5

All Results at This Track

2025 Allgaier 2024 Hill 2023 Mayer 2022 Gragson 2021 Snider 2020 Briscoe 2020 Burton 2019 Reddick 2018 Reddick 2017 Custer 2016 Suarez 2015 Larson 2014 Kenseth 2013 Keselowski 2012 Smith

Laps Led Leaders

Driver	Total Laps Led
Cole Custer	473
Kyle Larson	438
Daniel Suarez	133
Austin Hill	103
Austin Dillon	82

Track Type Tendencies

intermediate

Intermediate tracks like Homestead-Miami Speedway reward the complete package: car setup, pit strategy, and driver consistency all factor in. These are the races where elite teams separate themselves.

Track position and tire management are critical, especially in long green-flag runs.