Straight Talk Wireless 500
Phoenix RacewayPhoenix Raceway sits in the Arizona desert like a proving ground, a 1-mile flat oval with a distinctive dogleg configuration that has become one of the most important tracks on the Cup Series schedule. In recent years, Phoenix has hosted the championship-deciding finale, and that association has given every lap around this place a weight that few short tracks carry. The flat surface and tight corners put an enormous premium on mechanical grip; there is no banking to lean on, no high line to find speed through momentum. Cars have to turn on the strength of their setup and the feel of their driver. Pit strategy, restarts, and clean air matter enormously here. A well-timed call from the pit box can vault a mid-pack car into contention, while a restart in dirty air can bury even the fastest machine. Phoenix typically produces single-file racing through the corners with strategy-based passes coming through pit sequences rather than brute force on the track. The best teams and the sharpest strategists tend to rise to the top, and the margin between a top-five finish and a 15th-place run is often measured in the decisions made on pit road rather than the speed shown on the track.
Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.
Your Drivers' Outlook
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin has 28 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 1 win and a 10.6 average finish.
- Ryan Blaney has 22 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 2 wins and a 9.8 average finish.
- Christopher Bell has 15 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 2 wins and a 11.7 average finish.
Based on Cup Series results at Phoenix Raceway from 1949-2026.
The narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.
Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.
TV & Start Time
What channel is the Straight Talk Wireless 500 on?
The Straight Talk Wireless 500 airs on FS1 on Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET, broadcast from Phoenix Raceway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.
What time does the NASCAR Cup race start this race weekend?
The Straight Talk Wireless 500 ran on Sunday, March 8, 2026 with a 3:30 PM ET green flag on FS1.
NR-Rating Track Rankings
| # | Driver | Elo Rating | Last Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 1656 | P3 |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | 1646 | P1 |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 1642 | P5 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 1605 | P31 |
| 5 | Christopher Bell | 1595 | P2 |
| 6 | Chase Elliott | 1582 | P23 |
| 7 | William Byron | 1560 | P7 |
| 8 | Ty Gibbs | 1557 | P4 |
| 9 | Chase Briscoe | 1556 | P37 |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 1535 | P15 |
NR-Rating Predictions
Last updated: Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 07:09 AM ET
| # | Driver | Exp. Finish | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin Best in Field | 6.8 | 18.6% |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 17.5% |
| 3 | Christopher Bell | 8.3 | 16.2% |
| 4 | Chase Briscoe | 8.6 | 15.7% |
| 5 | Ty Gibbs | 8.6 | 12.8% |
| 6 | Chase Elliott | 9.9 | 11.6% |
| 7 | Joey Logano | 10.3 | 9.7% |
| 8 | Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 8.4% |
| 9 | William Byron | 10.8 | 7.0% |
| 10 | Chris Buescher | 12.0 | 6.2% |
| 11 | Tyler Reddick | 12.0 | 5.0% |
| 12 | Ryan Preece | 12.6 | 4.4% |
| 13 | Ross Chastain | 12.6 | 3.5% |
| 14 | Bubba Wallace | 12.6 | 3.5% |
| 15 | Brad Keselowski | 13.8 | 3.1% |
| 16 | Daniel Suarez | 14.0 | 2.8% |
| 17 | Austin Cindric | 14.0 | 2.3% |
| 18 | Carson Hocevar | 15.6 | 1.7% |
| 19 | Alex Bowman | 15.6 | 1.7% |
| 20 | Michael McDowell | 15.6 | 1.1% |
| 21 | Shane van Gisbergen | 17.0 | 0.9% |
| 22 | Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 0.6% |
| 23 | Todd Gilliland | 17.7 | 0.6% |
| 24 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 0.5% |
| 25 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.0 | 0.4% |
| 26 | John Hunter Nemechek | 19.0 | 0.4% |
| 27 | Casey Mears | 18.3 | 0.4% |
| 28 | Josh Berry | 19.0 | 0.4% |
| 29 | Kevin Magnussen | 19.0 | 0.4% |
| 30 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20.1 | 0.3% |
| 31 | Katherine Legge | 21.0 | 0.3% |
| 32 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.4 | 0.3% |
| 33 | Zane Smith | 20.2 | 0.2% |
| 34 | Riley Herbst | 21.7 | 0.1% |
| 35 | Cole Custer | 22.1 | 0.1% |
| 36 | Ty Dillon | 23.1 | 0.1% |
| 37 | Connor Zilisch | 23.0 | 0.1% |
| 38 | Noah Gragson | 22.1 | 0.1% |
| 39 | B.J. McLeod | 24.9 | 0.1% |
| 40 | Cody Ware | 37.3 | 0.0% |
Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning, higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.
Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)
Prediction Scorecard
Anduril 250: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P12
(1/5 top-5 hits)
37% top-5 hit rate across 13 races
History at Phoenix Raceway
Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (19 races)
Recent Results
| Year | Race | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Straight Talk Wireless 500 | Ryan Blaney |
| 2025 | NASCAR Cup Series Championship | Ryan Blaney |
| 2025 | Shriners Children's 500 | Christopher Bell |
| 2024 | NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race | Joey Logano |
| 2024 | Shriners Children's 500 | Christopher Bell |
All Results at This Track
Laps Led Leaders
| Driver | Total Laps Led |
|---|---|
| Joey Logano | 955 |
| Denny Hamlin | 707 |
| Kyle Busch | 605 |
| Chase Elliott | 583 |
| Ryan Blaney | 491 |
Track Type Tendencies
Phoenix Raceway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.
Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.
Fantasy
High laps-led totals at this track
Strong avg finish but no wins: lower ownership