Straight Talk Wireless 500
Phoenix RacewayPhoenix Raceway sits in the Arizona desert like a proving ground, a 1-mile flat oval with a distinctive dogleg configuration that has become one of the most important tracks on the Cup Series schedule. In recent years, Phoenix has hosted the championship-deciding finale, and that association has given every lap around this place a weight that few short tracks carry. The flat surface and tight corners put an enormous premium on mechanical grip — there is no banking to lean on, no high line to find speed through momentum. Cars have to turn on the strength of their setup and the feel of their driver. Pit strategy, restarts, and clean air matter enormously here. A well-timed call from the pit box can vault a mid-pack car into contention, while a restart in dirty air can bury even the fastest machine. Phoenix typically produces single-file racing through the corners with strategy-based passes coming through pit sequences rather than brute force on the track. The best teams and the sharpest strategists tend to rise to the top, and the margin between a top-five finish and a 15th-place run is often measured in the decisions made on pit road rather than the speed shown on the track.
Your watchlist, historical context, and race-week curiosities.
Your Drivers' Outlook
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin has 29 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 1 win and a 11.5 average finish.
- Ryan Blaney has 20 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 2 wins and a 7.8 average finish.
- Chase Elliott has 18 starts at Phoenix Raceway with 1 win and a 11.6 average finish.
Based on Cup Series results at Phoenix Raceway from 1949-2026.
Phoenix Raceway is one of the most unpredictable tracks in NASCAR with an average chaos score of 60.2.
Explore Phoenix Raceway statsRyan Blaney won the 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500 at Phoenix Raceway.
See Ryan Blaney's resultsThe narrative arc, drivers to watch, and race-weekend color.
Schedule, predictions, entry list, track history, fantasy, and betting angles.
TV & Start Time
What channel is the Straight Talk Wireless 500 on?
The Straight Talk Wireless 500 airs on FS1 on Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET, broadcast from Phoenix Raceway. The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule splits between FOX, FS1, TNT, NBC, USA, and Amazon Prime Video.
What time does the NASCAR Cup race start this race weekend?
The Straight Talk Wireless 500 ran on Sunday, March 8, 2026 with a 3:30 PM ET green flag on FS1.
NR-Rating Track Rankings
| # | Driver | Elo Rating | Last Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Larson | 1656 | P3 |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | 1648 | P1 |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 1623 | P5 |
| 4 | Christopher Bell | 1594 | P2 |
| 5 | Joey Logano | 1577 | P31 |
| 6 | Chase Elliott | 1575 | P23 |
| 7 | William Byron | 1550 | P7 |
| 8 | Ty Gibbs | 1544 | P4 |
| 9 | Ross Chastain | 1539 | P28 |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 1536 | P15 |
NR-Rating Predictions
Last updated: Wed, May 13, 2026, 07:50 AM ET
| # | Driver | Exp. Finish | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin Best in Field | 6.8 | 18.6% |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 17.5% |
| 3 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 16.2% |
| 4 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 13.2% |
| 5 | Christopher Bell | 8.6 | 13.2% |
| 6 | Tyler Reddick | 9.9 | 11.5% |
| 7 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 9.5% |
| 8 | William Byron | 10.3 | 8.2% |
| 9 | Ryan Preece | 10.8 | 7.0% |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 5.5% |
| 11 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 4.9% |
| 12 | Ty Gibbs | 12.6 | 4.3% |
| 13 | Chase Briscoe | 12.6 | 3.5% |
| 14 | Ross Chastain | 13.8 | 3.4% |
| 15 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 2.7% |
| 16 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 2.7% |
| 17 | Carson Hocevar | 14.7 | 2.4% |
| 18 | Michael McDowell | 15.0 | 2.1% |
| 19 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 1.7% |
| 20 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 1.3% |
| 21 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 0.8% |
| 22 | Austin Cindric | 17.0 | 0.8% |
| 23 | Todd Gilliland | 17.1 | 0.7% |
| 24 | Casey Mears | 18.0 | 0.6% |
| 25 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 0.5% |
| 26 | Shane van Gisbergen | 18.3 | 0.4% |
| 27 | Josh Berry | 19.0 | 0.4% |
| 28 | John Hunter Nemechek | 20.1 | 0.3% |
| 29 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 0.3% |
| 30 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 0.3% |
| 31 | Connor Zilisch | 21.2 | 0.2% |
| 32 | Katherine Legge | 21.2 | 0.2% |
| 33 | Zane Smith | 20.2 | 0.2% |
| 34 | Noah Gragson | 23.0 | 0.1% |
| 35 | Riley Herbst | 22.1 | 0.1% |
| 36 | Cole Custer | 23.0 | 0.1% |
| 37 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 0.1% |
| 38 | B.J. McLeod | 25.6 | 0.0% |
| 39 | Cody Ware | 29.8 | 0.0% |
Win probabilities reflect full-field Monte Carlo simulations. A 10% pWin means roughly 1-in-10 chance of winning — higher than most bettors realize for a 36-car field where the average driver has ~2.8% odds. Top 5 and Top 10 percentages similarly reflect simulated outcomes, not historical averages. Learn how the model works.
Predictions powered by NR-Rating model (MAE: 8.5 positions)
Prediction Scorecard
Go Bowling at The Glen: Model picked Chase Elliott at P1 → Actual P24
(1/5 top-5 hits)
38% top-5 hit rate across 11 races
History at Phoenix Raceway
Cup Series data from 1949-2026 (19 races)
Recent Results
| Year | Race | Winner |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Straight Talk Wireless 500 | Ryan Blaney |
| 2025 | NASCAR Cup Series Championship | Ryan Blaney |
| 2025 | Shriners Children's 500 | Christopher Bell |
| 2024 | NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race | Joey Logano |
| 2024 | Shriners Children's 500 | Christopher Bell |
All Results at This Track
Laps Led Leaders
| Driver | Total Laps Led |
|---|---|
| Joey Logano | 955 |
| Denny Hamlin | 707 |
| Kyle Busch | 605 |
| Chase Elliott | 583 |
| Ryan Blaney | 491 |
Track Type Tendencies
Phoenix Raceway is a short track where driver skill and aggression take center stage. Passing requires contact, tempers run hot, and strategy around restarts and pit timing can make or break a race.
Short tracks historically produce the most lead changes and the closest finishes.
Fantasy
High laps-led totals at this track
Strong avg finish but no wins — lower ownership