Ford 400

Homestead-Miami Speedway — November 19, 2006

Greg Biffle

Winner

268

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Greg Biffle won the 2006 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 19, 2006, leading 47 of 268 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, November 19, 2006

Track

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Season

2006

Winner

Greg Biffle

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	22	+21	Greg Biffle		268	—	Running	47	185
2	20	+18	Martin Truex, Jr.		268	—	Running	27	175
3	33	+30	Denny Hamlin		268	—	Running	—	165
4	1	-3	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	268	—	Running	90	170
5	7	+2	Kevin Harvick		268	—	Running	—	155
6	19	+13	Matt Kenseth		268	—	Running	—	150
7	2	-5	Scott Riggs		268	—	Running	1	151
8	31	+23	Carl Edwards		268	—	Running	—	142
9	15	+6	Jimmie Johnson		268	—	Running	2	143
10	10	—	Clint Bowyer		268	—	Running	—	134
11	23	+12	David Stremme	Dodge	268	—	Running	—	130
12	24	+12	Scott Wimmer		268	—	Running	—	127
13	13	—	Joe Nemechek		268	—	Running	—	124
14	5	-9	Jeff Burton		268	—	Running	—	121
15	21	+6	Tony Stewart		268	—	Running	—	118
16	11	-5	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	268	—	Running	—	115
17	28	+11	Paul Menard		268	—	Running	1	117
18	26	+8	Mark Martin		268	—	Running	—	109
19	14	-5	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		268	—	Running	47	111
20	40	+20	Tony Raines	Dodge	268	—	Running	—	103
21	6	-15	Brian Vickers		267	—	Running	—	100
22	27	+5	Jeff Green		267	—	Running	—	97
23	16	-7	Ryan Newman	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	94
24	12	-12	Jeff Gordon		267	—	Running	—	91
25	43	+18	Bill Elliott		267	—	Running	—	88
26	25	-1	Dave Blaney	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	85
27	34	+7	Travis Kvapil		266	—	Running	—	82
28	38	+10	Kyle Petty	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	79
29	37	+8	Ken Schrader		266	—	Running	—	76
30	8	-22	J.J. Yeley		265	—	Running	8	78
31	41	+10	Dale Jarrett		265	—	Running	—	70
32	39	+7	Casey Mears	Dodge	261	—	Running	—	67
33	9	-24	David Gilliland		257	—	Running	—	64
34	29	-5	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	251	—	Running	—	61
35	42	+7	Jamie McMurray		250	—	Running	—	58
36	4	-32	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	230	—	Running	17	60
37	18	-19	Sterling Marlin		213	—	DNF	—	52
38	3	-35	Kyle Busch		206	—	DNF	28	54
39	17	-22	Mike Bliss		201	—	DNF	—	46
40	35	-5	Robby Gordon		187	—	DNF	—	43
41	30	-11	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	83	—	DNF	—	40
42	32	-10	Jeremy Mayfield	Dodge	78	—	DNF	—	37
43	36	-7	Kurt Busch	Dodge	9	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	2	+13.4	Coinflip
3	Denny Hamlin	8.2	3	+5.2	High Confidence
9	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	9	+10.9	Moderate
30	J.J. Yeley	28.8	30	-1.2	High Confidence
32	Casey Mears	16.9	32	-15.1	Coinflip
38	Kyle Busch	17.0	38	-21.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Greg Biffle: has 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 14.6 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P15. Track history: 19 starts, 10.7 avg finish.

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