Pennsylvania 500

Pocono Raceway — July 23, 2006

Denny Hamlin

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2006 Pennsylvania 500 at Pocono Raceway on July 23, 2006, leading 151 of 200 laps. Kurt Busch finished second; Jeff Gordon rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, July 23, 2006

Track

Pocono Raceway

Season

2006

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Denny Hamlin		200	—	Running	151	190
2	7	+5	Kurt Busch	Dodge	200	—	Running	4	175
3	5	+2	Jeff Gordon		200	—	Running	3	170
4	4	—	Brian Vickers		200	—	Running	—	160
5	12	+7	Kevin Harvick		200	—	Running	—	155
6	15	+9	Jimmie Johnson		200	—	Running	—	150
7	13	+6	Tony Stewart		200	—	Running	—	146
8	27	+19	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	200	—	Running	2	147
9	6	-3	Jeff Burton		200	—	Running	23	143
10	17	+7	Martin Truex, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	134
11	21	+10	J.J. Yeley		200	—	Running	—	130
12	8	-4	Kyle Busch		200	—	Running	—	127
13	29	+16	Robby Gordon		200	—	Running	—	124
14	11	-3	Matt Kenseth		200	—	Running	—	121
15	18	+3	Ken Schrader		200	—	Running	1	123
16	24	+8	Dave Blaney	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	115
17	10	-7	Joe Nemechek		200	—	Running	—	112
18	2	-16	Ryan Newman	Dodge	200	—	Running	12	114
19	30	+11	Mark Martin		200	—	Running	—	106
20	28	+8	Jamie McMurray		200	—	Running	—	103
21	19	-2	Tony Raines	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	100
22	9	-13	Scott Riggs		200	—	Running	—	97
23	31	+8	Casey Mears	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	94
24	20	-4	Greg Biffle		200	—	Running	—	91
25	37	+12	Terry Labonte		200	—	Running	—	88
26	23	-3	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	85
27	40	+13	Travis Kvapil		200	—	Running	—	82
28	38	+10	Dale Jarrett		200	—	Running	3	84
29	42	+13	David Stremme	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	76
30	35	+5	Sterling Marlin		199	—	Running	—	73
31	3	-28	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	70
32	25	-7	Elliott Sadler		199	—	Running	1	72
33	36	+3	Stephen Leicht		199	—	Running	—	0
34	34	—	Kevin Lepage	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	61
35	32	-3	Jeff Green		199	—	Running	—	58
36	43	+7	Jimmy Spencer		199	—	Running	—	55
37	22	-15	Jeremy Mayfield	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	52
38	41	+3	Scott Wimmer		196	—	Running	—	49
39	16	-23	Carl Edwards		196	—	Running	—	46
40	39	-1	Michael Waltrip	Dodge	195	—	Running	—	43
41	14	-27	Clint Bowyer		194	—	Running	—	40
42	33	-9	Kyle Petty	Dodge	117	—	DNF	—	37
43	26	-17	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		115	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	8.2	1	+7.2	High Confidence
6	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	6	+13.9	Moderate
10	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	10	+5.4	Coinflip
11	J.J. Yeley	28.8	11	+17.8	High Confidence
12	Kyle Busch	17.0	12	+5.0	Coinflip
23	Casey Mears	16.9	23	-6.1	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 38 career starts at Pocono Raceway with a 10.5 avg finish (7 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
J.J. Yeley: was the biggest surprise, finishing P11 vs predicted P29. Track history: 24 starts, 30.7 avg finish.

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