UAW-Ford 500

Talladega Superspeedway — October 8, 2006

Brian Vickers

Winner

188

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Brian Vickers won the 2006 UAW-Ford 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on October 8, 2006, leading 17 of 188 laps. Kasey Kahne finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 23 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 8, 2006

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2006

Winner

Brian Vickers

Leaders

23 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	9	+8	Brian Vickers		188	—	Running	17	185
2	25	+23	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	188	—	Running	7	175
3	29	+26	Kurt Busch	Dodge	188	—	Running	3	170
4	19	+15	Matt Kenseth		188	—	Running	21	165
5	16	+11	Martin Truex, Jr.		188	—	Running	2	160
6	14	+8	Kevin Harvick		188	—	Running	—	150
7	37	+30	Jeff Green		188	—	Running	—	146
8	30	+22	Mark Martin		188	—	Running	2	147
9	17	+8	Carl Edwards		188	—	Running	—	138
10	39	+29	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	188	—	Running	—	134
11	6	-5	Kyle Busch		188	—	Running	10	135
12	2	-10	Dale Jarrett		188	—	Running	1	132
13	11	-2	Ryan Newman	Dodge	188	—	Running	—	124
14	21	+7	Michael Waltrip	Dodge	188	—	Running	1	126
15	1	-14	David Gilliland		188	—	Running	—	118
16	36	+20	Robby Gordon		188	—	Running	—	115
17	28	+11	Mike Wallace	Dodge	188	—	Running	—	112
18	15	-3	Joe Nemechek		188	—	Running	1	114
19	41	+22	Scott Riggs		188	—	Running	—	106
20	40	+20	Tony Raines	Dodge	188	—	Running	—	103
21	12	-9	Denny Hamlin		188	—	Running	1	105
22	13	-9	Tony Stewart		188	—	Running	1	102
23	33	+10	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		188	—	Running	37	104
24	3	-21	Jimmie Johnson		187	—	Running	6	96
25	23	-2	Ken Schrader		187	—	Running	—	88
26	20	-6	Mike Bliss		187	—	Running	—	85
27	34	+7	Jeff Burton		187	—	Running	5	87
28	35	+7	Dave Blaney	Dodge	186	—	Running	—	79
29	22	-7	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	186	—	Running	1	81
30	31	+1	Casey Mears	Dodge	185	—	Running	1	78
31	27	-4	Eric McClure	Dodge	182	—	Running	—	70
32	10	-22	J.J. Yeley		177	—	Running	—	67
33	38	+5	David Stremme	Dodge	175	—	Running	—	64
34	24	-10	Paul Menard		173	—	Running	1	66
35	32	-3	Clint Bowyer		171	—	Running	5	63
36	4	-32	Jeff Gordon		167	—	Running	27	60
37	8	-29	Jamie McMurray		160	—	Running	22	57
38	18	-20	Kyle Petty	Dodge	149	—	DNF	—	49
39	42	+3	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	147	—	DNF	1	51
40	7	-33	Sterling Marlin		145	—	DNF	—	43
41	5	-36	Greg Biffle		137	—	DNF	15	45
42	26	-16	Kenny Wallace		24	—	DNF	—	37
43	43	—	Derrike Cope	Dodge	9	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 6 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.9 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
5	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	5	+15.1	Coinflip
11	Kyle Busch	15.1	11	+4.1	Coinflip
21	Denny Hamlin	16.0	21	-5.0	Coinflip
24	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	24	-5.1	Coinflip
30	Casey Mears	18.5	30	-11.5	Coinflip
32	J.J. Yeley	25.2	32	-6.8	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Brian Vickers: has 20 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.4 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 54 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.1 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P11 on the day.
Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P20. Track history: 34 starts, 19.6 avg finish.

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