NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Darlington

Darlington Raceway — May 12, 2007

Jeff Gordon

Winner

367

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jeff Gordon won the 2007 NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series at Darlington at Darlington Raceway on May 12, 2007, leading 22 of 367 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, May 12, 2007

Track

Darlington Raceway

Season

2007

Winner

Jeff Gordon

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	10	+9	Jeff Gordon		367	—	Running	22	190
2	7	+5	Denny Hamlin		367	—	Running	179	180
3	12	+9	Jimmie Johnson		367	—	Running	44	170
4	29	+25	Ryan Newman	Dodge	367	—	Running	39	165
5	4	-1	Carl Edwards		367	—	Running	33	160
6	26	+20	Tony Stewart		367	—	Running	—	150
7	31	+24	Matt Kenseth		367	—	Running	29	151
8	21	+13	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		367	—	Running	—	142
9	1	-8	Clint Bowyer		367	—	Running	16	143
10	34	+24	Jeff Burton		367	—	Running	—	134
11	25	+14	Martin Truex, Jr.		367	—	Running	—	130
12	18	+6	Kurt Busch	Dodge	367	—	Running	—	127
13	28	+15	Sterling Marlin		367	—	Running	—	124
14	37	+23	Mark Martin		367	—	Running	—	121
15	2	-13	Greg Biffle		367	—	Running	—	118
16	3	-13	Jamie McMurray		367	—	Running	—	115
17	9	-8	Kevin Harvick		367	—	Running	—	112
18	22	+4	J.J. Yeley		367	—	Running	—	109
19	13	-6	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	367	—	Running	—	106
20	5	-15	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	367	—	Running	—	103
21	17	-4	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	367	—	Running	1	105
22	39	+17	Jeff Green		365	—	Running	—	97
23	41	+18	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	365	—	Running	—	94
24	6	-18	Kenny Wallace		365	—	Running	—	91
25	42	+17	Kyle Petty	Dodge	364	—	Running	—	88
26	40	+14	Ricky Rudd		364	—	Running	—	85
27	24	-3	David Ragan		363	—	Running	—	82
28	35	+7	Joe Nemechek		363	—	Running	—	79
29	19	-10	Johnny Sauter		361	—	Running	—	76
30	38	+8	David Gilliland		361	—	Running	—	73
31	23	-8	Paul Menard		358	—	Running	—	70
32	27	-5	Dave Blaney		355	—	Running	2	72
33	14	-19	David Reutimann		351	—	Running	—	64
34	30	-4	David Stremme	Dodge	349	—	Running	—	61
35	11	-24	Casey Mears		345	—	Running	—	58
36	20	-16	A.J. Allmendinger		344	—	Running	—	55
37	36	-1	Kyle Busch		338	—	Running	—	52
38	33	-5	Robby Gordon		317	—	Running	—	49
39	32	-7	Tony Raines		310	—	DNF	—	46
40	16	-24	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	310	—	DNF	—	43
41	8	-33	Ken Schrader		254	—	DNF	2	45
42	43	+1	Kevin Lepage	Dodge	127	—	DNF	—	37
43	15	-28	Brian Vickers		122	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Denny Hamlin	8.2	2	+6.2	High Confidence
3	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	3	+16.9	Moderate
11	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	11	+4.4	Coinflip
18	J.J. Yeley	28.8	18	+10.8	High Confidence
35	Casey Mears	16.9	35	-18.1	Coinflip
36	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	36	-17.7	Moderate
37	Kyle Busch	17.0	37	-20.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jeff Gordon: has 40 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 12.1 avg finish (7 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.6 avg finish (10 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P20. Track history: 29 starts, 16.0 avg finish.

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