NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway — March 30, 2008

Denny Hamlin

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville at Martinsville Speedway on March 30, 2008, leading 82 of 500 laps. Jeff Gordon finished second; Jeff Burton rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 30, 2008

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2008

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	2	+1	Denny Hamlin		500	—	Running	82	190
2	1	-1	Jeff Gordon		500	—	Running	90	175
3	24	+21	Jeff Burton		500	—	Running	37	170
4	10	+6	Jimmie Johnson		500	—	Running	135	165
5	9	+4	Tony Stewart		500	—	Running	—	155
6	22	+16	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	146	160
7	39	+32	Casey Mears		500	—	Running	—	146
8	5	-3	Jamie McMurray		500	—	Running	—	142
9	27	+18	Carl Edwards		500	—	Running	—	138
10	12	+2	Clint Bowyer		500	—	Running	—	134
11	4	-7	David Ragan		500	—	Running	—	130
12	11	-1	Kevin Harvick		500	—	Running	—	127
13	29	+16	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	124
14	33	+19	Regan Smith		500	—	Running	—	121
15	25	+10	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	118
16	35	+19	Paul Menard		500	—	Running	—	115
17	6	-11	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	112
18	14	-4	Travis Kvapil		499	—	Running	—	109
19	13	-6	Ryan Newman	Dodge	499	—	Running	—	106
20	19	-1	Greg Biffle		499	—	Running	—	103
21	42	+21	Martin Truex, Jr.		499	—	Running	—	100
22	43	+21	Dario Franchitti	Dodge	499	—	Running	—	97
23	40	+17	Brian Vickers		497	—	Running	—	94
24	21	-3	David Gilliland		497	—	Running	—	91
25	32	+7	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	497	—	Running	3	93
26	34	+8	Michael McDowell		497	—	Running	—	85
27	23	-4	J.J. Yeley		497	—	Running	—	82
28	26	-2	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	497	—	Running	—	79
29	37	+8	Patrick Carpentier	Dodge	497	—	Running	—	76
30	28	-2	Matt Kenseth		496	—	Running	—	73
31	30	-1	Mike Skinner		496	—	Running	—	70
32	31	-1	Jeremy Mayfield		495	—	Running	—	67
33	20	-13	Kurt Busch	Dodge	493	—	Running	—	64
34	17	-17	Bill Elliott		492	—	Running	—	61
35	16	-19	Michael Waltrip		483	—	Running	—	58
36	38	+2	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	471	—	Running	—	55
37	7	-30	Ken Schrader		467	—	Running	—	52
38	8	-30	Kyle Busch		443	—	Running	—	49
39	15	-24	David Reutimann		441	—	Running	3	51
40	41	+1	Robby Gordon	Dodge	440	—	Running	—	43
41	36	-5	Scott Riggs		420	—	DNF	—	40
42	3	-39	Aric Almirola		379	—	DNF	—	37
43	18	-25	Dave Blaney		374	—	DNF	4	39

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	8.6	1	+7.6	Moderate
4	Jimmie Johnson	18.0	4	+14.0	Moderate
7	Casey Mears	17.7	7	+10.7	Coinflip
12	Kevin Harvick	10.3	12	-1.7	Moderate
19	Ryan Newman	23.0	19	+4.0	High Confidence
21	Martin Truex, Jr.	14.0	21	-7.0	Coinflip
26	Michael McDowell	14.0	26	-12.0	Coinflip
27	J.J. Yeley	27.3	27	+0.3	High Confidence
38	Kyle Busch	14.0	38	-24.0	Coinflip
42	Aric Almirola	15.0	42	-27.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P18. Track history: 36 starts, 8.7 avg finish.

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