NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Texas

Texas Motor Speedway — April 6, 2008

Carl Edwards

Winner

339

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Carl Edwards won the 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Texas at Texas Motor Speedway on April 6, 2008, leading 123 of 339 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, April 6, 2008

Track

Texas Motor Speedway

Season

2008

Winner

Carl Edwards

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	2	+1	Carl Edwards		339	—	Running	123	195
2	5	+3	Jimmie Johnson		339	—	Running	65	175
3	3	—	Kyle Busch		339	—	Running	50	170
4	4	—	Ryan Newman	Dodge	339	—	Running	—	160
5	14	+9	Denny Hamlin		339	—	Running	—	155
6	35	+29	Jeff Burton		339	—	Running	—	150
7	24	+17	Tony Stewart		339	—	Running	—	146
8	31	+23	Mark Martin		339	—	Running	—	142
9	8	-1	Matt Kenseth		339	—	Running	68	143
10	25	+15	Clint Bowyer		339	—	Running	—	134
11	21	+10	Kevin Harvick		338	—	Running	—	130
12	1	-11	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		338	—	Running	31	132
13	7	-6	David Ragan		338	—	Running	—	124
14	32	+18	Jamie McMurray		338	—	Running	—	121
15	41	+26	David Gilliland		338	—	Running	—	118
16	36	+20	Brian Vickers		338	—	Running	—	115
17	19	+2	Paul Menard		338	—	Running	—	112
18	38	+20	Travis Kvapil		338	—	Running	—	109
19	11	-8	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	337	—	Running	—	106
20	30	+10	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	337	—	Running	—	103
21	29	+8	Dave Blaney		337	—	Running	—	100
22	22	—	Casey Mears		337	—	Running	—	97
23	23	—	Kurt Busch	Dodge	337	—	Running	—	94
24	42	+18	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	337	—	Running	—	91
25	10	-15	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	336	—	Running	—	88
26	26	—	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	336	—	Running	—	85
27	13	-14	Scott Riggs		336	—	Running	—	82
28	27	-1	Patrick Carpentier	Dodge	335	—	Running	—	79
29	9	-20	Mike Skinner		334	—	Running	—	76
30	15	-15	Robby Gordon	Dodge	334	—	Running	—	73
31	20	-11	Michael Waltrip		333	—	Running	—	70
32	17	-15	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	333	—	Running	—	67
33	40	+7	Michael McDowell		332	—	Running	—	64
34	28	-6	Bill Elliott		332	—	Running	—	61
35	34	-1	Regan Smith		331	—	Running	—	58
36	12	-24	Martin Truex, Jr.		330	—	Running	2	60
37	43	+6	Joe Nemechek		330	—	Running	—	52
38	39	+1	Jeremy Mayfield		329	—	Running	—	49
39	16	-23	Greg Biffle		312	—	Running	—	46
40	37	-3	John Andretti		263	—	DNF	—	43
41	6	-35	David Reutimann		253	—	DNF	—	40
42	33	-9	J.J. Yeley		173	—	DNF	—	37
43	18	-25	Jeff Gordon		124	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	2	+17.9	Moderate
3	Kyle Busch	17.0	3	+14.0	Coinflip
5	Denny Hamlin	8.2	5	+3.2	High Confidence
11	Kevin Harvick	11.2	11	+0.2	Coinflip
22	Casey Mears	17.1	22	-4.9	Coinflip
33	Michael McDowell	16.6	33	-16.4	Coinflip
36	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	36	-20.6	Coinflip
42	J.J. Yeley	28.2	42	-13.8	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Carl Edwards: has 39 career starts at Texas Motor Speedway with a 12.4 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 45 career starts at Texas Motor Speedway with a 12.6 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 34 starts, 10.3 avg finish.

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