NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan

Michigan International Speedway — June 15, 2008

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Winner

203

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. won the 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on June 15, 2008, leading 14 of 203 laps. Kasey Kahne finished second; Matt Kenseth rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 15, 2008

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2008

Winner

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Leaders

13 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	3	+2	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		203	—	Running	14	190
2	9	+7	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	203	—	Running	—	170
3	16	+13	Matt Kenseth		203	—	Running	41	170
4	18	+14	Brian Vickers		203	—	Running	44	165
5	12	+7	Tony Stewart		203	—	Running	1	160
6	6	—	Jimmie Johnson		203	—	Running	65	160
7	4	-3	Carl Edwards		203	—	Running	21	151
8	13	+5	David Ragan		203	—	Running	6	147
9	27	+18	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	203	—	Running	—	138
10	23	+13	Jamie McMurray		203	—	Running	1	139
11	26	+15	Paul Menard		203	—	Running	—	130
12	10	-2	Kevin Harvick		203	—	Running	—	127
13	1	-12	Kyle Busch		203	—	Running	5	129
14	5	-9	Denny Hamlin		203	—	Running	1	126
15	2	-13	Jeff Burton		203	—	Running	—	118
16	19	+3	Travis Kvapil		203	—	Running	—	115
17	17	—	Martin Truex, Jr.		203	—	Running	—	112
18	8	-10	Jeff Gordon		203	—	Running	—	109
19	39	+20	A.J. Allmendinger		203	—	Running	1	111
20	7	-13	Greg Biffle		203	—	Running	—	103
21	22	+1	Kurt Busch	Dodge	203	—	Running	—	100
22	35	+13	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	203	—	Running	2	102
23	38	+15	Michael Waltrip		203	—	Running	1	99
24	43	+19	Patrick Carpentier	Dodge	202	—	Running	—	91
25	15	-10	Mark Martin		202	—	Running	—	88
26	11	-15	Clint Bowyer		202	—	Running	—	85
27	24	-3	David Gilliland		202	—	Running	—	82
28	42	+14	Joe Nemechek		202	—	Running	—	79
29	36	+7	Terry Labonte	Dodge	202	—	Running	—	76
30	25	-5	Casey Mears		201	—	Running	—	73
31	20	-11	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	201	—	Running	—	70
32	31	-1	Regan Smith		201	—	Running	—	67
33	34	+1	Scott Riggs		201	—	Running	—	64
34	32	-2	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	61
35	28	-7	David Reutimann		200	—	Running	—	58
36	37	+1	Bill Elliott		200	—	Running	—	55
37	33	-4	Michael McDowell		199	—	Running	—	52
38	21	-17	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	194	—	Running	—	49
39	29	-10	Dave Blaney		180	—	Running	—	46
40	30	-10	Robby Gordon	Dodge	150	—	DNF	—	43
41	40	-1	J.J. Yeley		116	—	DNF	—	40
42	14	-28	Ryan Newman	Dodge	114	—	DNF	—	37
43	41	-2	Dario Franchitti	Dodge	30	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.1 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
6	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	6	+13.9	Moderate
12	Kevin Harvick	11.2	12	-0.8	Coinflip
13	Kyle Busch	17.0	13	+4.0	Coinflip
14	Denny Hamlin	8.2	14	-5.8	High Confidence
17	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	17	-1.6	Coinflip
19	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	19	-0.7	Moderate
30	Casey Mears	17.1	30	-12.9	Coinflip
37	Michael McDowell	16.7	37	-20.3	Coinflip
41	J.J. Yeley	28.5	41	-12.5	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: has 35 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P14 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P20. Track history: 42 starts, 17.1 avg finish.

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