NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Watkins Glen

Watkins Glen International — August 10, 2008

Kyle Busch

Winner

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Watkins Glen at Watkins Glen International on August 10, 2008, leading 52 of 90 laps. Tony Stewart finished second; Marcos Ambrose rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Track

Watkins Glen International

Season

2008

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

5 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Kyle Busch		90	—	Running	52	195
2	9	+7	Tony Stewart		90	—	Running	1	175
3	43	+40	Marcos Ambrose		90	—	Running	—	165
4	25	+21	Juan Pablo Montoya	Dodge	90	—	Running	2	165
5	18	+13	Martin Truex, Jr.		90	—	Running	—	155
6	11	+5	Kevin Harvick		90	—	Running	—	150
7	4	-3	Jimmie Johnson		90	—	Running	2	151
8	10	+2	Denny Hamlin		90	—	Running	—	142
9	3	-6	Carl Edwards		90	—	Running	—	138
10	19	+9	Kurt Busch	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	134
11	37	+26	A.J. Allmendinger		90	—	Running	—	130
12	13	+1	Matt Kenseth		90	—	Running	—	127
13	32	+19	Ron Fellows		90	—	Running	—	124
14	7	-7	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	121
15	22	+7	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	118
16	20	+4	Jamie McMurray		90	—	Running	—	115
17	5	-12	Jeff Burton		90	—	Running	—	112
18	17	-1	Brian Vickers		90	—	Running	—	109
19	24	+5	Casey Mears		90	—	Running	—	106
20	39	+19	Patrick Carpentier	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	103
21	8	-13	Greg Biffle		90	—	Running	—	100
22	2	-20	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		90	—	Running	33	102
23	12	-11	Clint Bowyer		90	—	Running	—	94
24	40	+16	Boris Said	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	91
25	36	+11	Michael McDowell		90	—	Running	—	88
26	16	-10	Ryan Newman	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	85
27	31	+4	Robby Gordon	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	82
28	27	-1	Paul Menard		90	—	Running	—	79
29	6	-23	Jeff Gordon		90	—	Running	—	76
30	14	-16	David Ragan		90	—	Running	—	73
31	30	-1	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	70
32	34	+2	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	90	—	Running	—	67
33	28	-5	David Reutimann		89	—	Running	—	64
34	35	+1	Scott Riggs		89	—	Running	—	61
35	15	-20	Aric Almirola		89	—	Running	—	58
36	23	-13	Travis Kvapil		89	—	Running	—	55
37	38	+1	P.J. Jones		89	—	Running	—	52
38	41	+3	Joe Nemechek		86	—	Running	—	49
39	33	-6	Michael Waltrip		82	—	Running	—	46
40	26	-14	David Gilliland		81	—	Running	—	43
41	29	-12	Dave Blaney		81	—	Running	—	40
42	21	-21	Bobby Labonte	Dodge	81	—	Running	—	37
43	42	-1	Max Papis		81	—	Running	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Busch	13.0	1	+12.0	Coinflip
4	Juan Pablo Montoya	16.7	4	+12.7	Moderate
5	Martin Truex, Jr.	16.5	5	+11.5	Coinflip
6	Kevin Harvick	12.7	6	+6.7	Moderate
7	Jimmie Johnson	16.7	7	+9.7	Moderate
8	Denny Hamlin	16.7	8	+8.7	Coinflip
11	A.J. Allmendinger	16.5	11	+5.5	Coinflip
19	Casey Mears	16.7	19	-2.3	Coinflip
25	Michael McDowell	12.9	25	-12.1	Moderate
35	Aric Almirola	17.2	35	-17.8	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 30 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 13.6 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kevin Harvick: was the model’s top pick based on 32 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 11.9 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P6 on the day.
Juan Pablo Montoya: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P17. Track history: 8 starts, 16.0 avg finish.

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