NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol

Bristol Motor Speedway — March 22, 2009

Kyle Busch

Winner

503

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 22, 2009, leading 378 of 503 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 22, 2009

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2009

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	19	+18	Kyle Busch		503	—	Running	378	195
2	24	+22	Denny Hamlin		503	—	Running	7	175
3	3	—	Jimmie Johnson		503	—	Running	88	170
4	10	+6	Jeff Gordon		503	—	Running	—	160
5	5	—	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	503	—	Running	—	155
6	1	-5	Mark Martin		503	—	Running	2	155
7	2	-5	Ryan Newman		503	—	Running	25	151
8	40	+32	Jeff Burton		503	—	Running	—	142
9	12	+3	Juan Pablo Montoya		503	—	Running	—	138
10	13	+3	Marcos Ambrose		503	—	Running	—	134
11	32	+21	Kurt Busch	Dodge	503	—	Running	—	130
12	6	-6	David Reutimann		503	—	Running	1	132
13	31	+18	Clint Bowyer		503	—	Running	—	124
14	34	+20	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		503	—	Running	—	121
15	38	+23	Carl Edwards		503	—	Running	—	118
16	26	+10	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	503	—	Running	—	115
17	15	-2	Tony Stewart		502	—	Running	—	112
18	17	-1	Travis Kvapil		502	—	Running	—	109
19	29	+10	David Stremme	Dodge	502	—	Running	—	106
20	22	+2	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	502	—	Running	—	103
21	35	+14	Robby Gordon		501	—	Running	—	100
22	36	+14	Bobby Labonte		501	—	Running	—	97
23	7	-16	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	501	—	Running	—	94
24	37	+13	Casey Mears		501	—	Running	—	91
25	42	+17	Paul Menard		501	—	Running	—	88
26	20	-6	Martin Truex, Jr.		501	—	Running	—	85
27	41	+14	David Ragan		500	—	Running	—	82
28	11	-17	Scott Speed		500	—	Running	—	79
29	27	-2	Brian Vickers		499	—	Running	—	76
30	30	—	Kevin Harvick		499	—	Running	—	73
31	25	-6	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	499	—	Running	—	70
32	21	-11	Michael Waltrip		497	—	Running	2	72
33	33	—	Matt Kenseth		497	—	Running	—	64
34	39	+5	John Andretti		495	—	Running	—	61
35	18	-17	Aric Almirola		494	—	Running	—	58
36	14	-22	David Gilliland		493	—	Running	—	55
37	9	-28	Jamie McMurray		491	—	Running	—	52
38	23	-15	Joey Logano		490	—	Running	—	49
39	4	-35	Greg Biffle		326	—	DNF	—	46
40	43	+3	Sterling Marlin	Dodge	91	—	DNF	—	43
41	28	-13	Joe Nemechek		82	—	DNF	—	40
42	16	-26	Todd Bodine		58	—	DNF	—	37
43	8	-35	Dave Blaney		33	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Busch	15.6	1	+14.6	Coinflip
2	Denny Hamlin	6.8	2	+4.8	High Confidence
3	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	3	+14.7	Moderate
16	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	16	+2.3	Moderate
24	Casey Mears	18.0	24	-6.0	Moderate
26	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	26	-12.2	Coinflip
38	Joey Logano	12.1	38	-25.9	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 73 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.7 avg finish (20 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P2 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P18. Track history: 45 starts, 14.7 avg finish.

Track Preview →