NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway — March 29, 2009

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville at Martinsville Speedway on March 29, 2009, leading 42 of 500 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Tony Stewart rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2009

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	9	+8	Jimmie Johnson		500	—	Running	42	190
2	8	+6	Denny Hamlin		500	—	Running	296	180
3	7	+4	Tony Stewart		500	—	Running	—	165
4	1	-3	Jeff Gordon		500	—	Running	147	165
5	3	-2	Clint Bowyer		500	—	Running	—	155
6	27	+21	Ryan Newman		500	—	Running	—	150
7	31	+24	Mark Martin		500	—	Running	—	146
8	19	+11	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	—	142
9	16	+7	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	138
10	28	+18	Jamie McMurray		500	—	Running	—	134
11	12	+1	Kevin Harvick		500	—	Running	—	130
12	15	+3	Juan Pablo Montoya		500	—	Running	—	127
13	21	+8	Michael Waltrip		500	—	Running	—	124
14	24	+10	Marcos Ambrose		500	—	Running	—	121
15	13	-2	Jeff Burton		500	—	Running	—	118
16	23	+7	Bobby Labonte		500	—	Running	1	120
17	29	+12	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	112
18	2	-16	Kurt Busch	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	109
19	6	-13	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	106
20	11	-9	David Reutimann		499	—	Running	—	103
21	25	+4	Casey Mears		499	—	Running	—	100
22	22	—	David Stremme	Dodge	499	—	Running	—	97
23	10	-13	Matt Kenseth		499	—	Running	—	94
24	4	-20	Kyle Busch		498	—	Running	—	91
25	38	+13	Paul Menard		498	—	Running	—	88
26	5	-21	Carl Edwards		498	—	Running	—	85
27	26	-1	David Ragan		498	—	Running	—	82
28	18	-10	Greg Biffle		498	—	Running	—	79
29	20	-9	Martin Truex, Jr.		498	—	Running	—	76
30	40	+10	Scott Riggs		497	—	Running	—	73
31	17	-14	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	497	—	Running	—	70
32	34	+2	Joey Logano		496	—	Running	—	67
33	14	-19	Brian Vickers		496	—	Running	—	64
34	32	-2	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	496	—	Running	—	61
35	33	-2	John Andretti		496	—	Running	—	58
36	35	-1	David Gilliland		492	—	Running	—	55
37	37	—	Aric Almirola		490	—	Running	—	52
38	42	+4	Jeremy Mayfield		441	—	Running	1	54
39	36	-3	Scott Speed		424	—	DNF	12	51
40	30	-10	Robby Gordon		349	—	DNF	—	43
41	41	—	Joe Nemechek		90	—	DNF	—	40
42	39	-3	Dave Blaney		49	—	DNF	1	42
43	43	—	Todd Bodine		3	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	1	+16.7	Moderate
2	Denny Hamlin	6.8	2	+4.8	High Confidence
9	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	9	+9.3	Moderate
21	Casey Mears	18.0	21	-3.0	Moderate
24	Kyle Busch	15.6	24	-8.4	Coinflip
29	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	29	-15.2	Coinflip
32	Joey Logano	12.1	32	-19.9	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 36 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 8.7 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins), finishing P2 on the day.

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