CARFAX 400 at Michigan

Michigan International Speedway — August 16, 2009

Brian Vickers

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Brian Vickers won the 2009 CARFAX 400 at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on August 16, 2009, leading 12 of 200 laps. Jeff Gordon finished second; Dale Earnhardt, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 14 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2009

Winner

Brian Vickers

Leaders

14 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Brian Vickers		200	—	Running	12	190
2	21	+19	Jeff Gordon		200	—	Running	1	175
3	15	+12	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		200	—	Running	6	170
4	32	+28	Carl Edwards		200	—	Running	1	165
5	14	+9	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	155
6	42	+36	Casey Mears		200	—	Running	—	150
7	8	+1	Joey Logano		200	—	Running	—	146
8	23	+15	Clint Bowyer		200	—	Running	1	147
9	31	+22	David Reutimann		200	—	Running	4	143
10	16	+6	Denny Hamlin		200	—	Running	2	139
11	10	-1	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	130
12	22	+10	Kevin Harvick		200	—	Running	—	127
13	20	+7	David Stremme	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	124
14	25	+11	Matt Kenseth		200	—	Running	6	126
15	7	-8	Ryan Newman		200	—	Running	—	118
16	9	-7	Bill Elliott		200	—	Running	—	115
17	18	+1	Tony Stewart		200	—	Running	2	117
18	27	+9	Jeff Burton		200	—	Running	—	109
19	3	-16	Juan Pablo Montoya		200	—	Running	—	106
20	17	-3	Greg Biffle		200	—	Running	—	103
21	5	-16	Martin Truex, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	100
22	13	-9	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	97
23	39	+16	Kyle Busch		200	—	Running	—	94
24	12	-12	Brad Keselowski		200	—	Running	—	91
25	34	+9	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	88
26	35	+9	Paul Menard		200	—	Running	4	90
27	30	+3	Michael Waltrip		200	—	Running	1	87
28	29	+1	John Andretti		200	—	Running	—	79
29	40	+11	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	76
30	37	+7	David Ragan		200	—	Running	1	78
31	2	-29	Mark Martin		200	—	Running	26	75
32	19	-13	Jamie McMurray		200	—	Running	—	67
33	4	-29	Jimmie Johnson		199	—	Running	133	74
34	11	-23	Scott Speed		199	—	Running	—	61
35	26	-9	Marcos Ambrose		199	—	Running	—	58
36	6	-30	Kurt Busch	Dodge	146	—	DNF	—	55
37	24	-13	Robby Gordon		97	—	DNF	—	52
38	28	-10	Mike Bliss	Dodge	62	—	DNF	—	49
39	38	-1	Joe Nemechek		40	—	DNF	—	46
40	36	-4	David Gilliland		39	—	DNF	—	43
41	43	+2	Mike Skinner		33	—	DNF	—	40
42	41	-1	Dave Blaney		18	—	DNF	—	37
43	33	-10	Bobby Labonte		18	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 7.7 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
6	Casey Mears	16.9	6	+10.9	Coinflip
7	Joey Logano	14.7	7	+7.7	Coinflip
10	Denny Hamlin	8.2	10	-1.8	High Confidence
21	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	21	-5.6	Coinflip
22	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	22	-3.7	Moderate
23	Kyle Busch	17.0	23	-6.0	Coinflip
24	Brad Keselowski	11.2	24	-12.8	Moderate
33	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	33	-13.1	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Brian Vickers: has 22 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 15.6 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P10 on the day.
Casey Mears: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P17. Track history: 32 starts, 21.6 avg finish.

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