NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Daytona

Daytona International Speedway — July 3, 2010

Kevin Harvick

Winner

166

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kevin Harvick won the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Daytona at Daytona International Speedway on July 3, 2010, leading 28 of 166 laps. Kasey Kahne finished second; Jeff Gordon rounded out the podium. The race featured 18 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, July 3, 2010

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2010

Winner

Kevin Harvick

Leaders

18 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Kevin Harvick		166	—	Running	28	195
2	20	+18	Kasey Kahne		166	—	Running	—	170
3	5	+2	Jeff Gordon		166	—	Running	13	170
4	13	+9	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		166	—	Running	—	160
5	8	+3	Jeff Burton		166	—	Running	11	160
6	12	+6	Carl Edwards		166	—	Running	—	150
7	6	-1	Kurt Busch	Dodge	166	—	Running	14	151
8	24	+16	Reed Sorenson		166	—	Running	—	142
9	35	+26	Mike Bliss		166	—	Running	—	138
10	27	+17	Scott Speed		166	—	Running	—	134
11	19	+8	David Reutimann		166	—	Running	—	130
12	32	+20	Robby Gordon		166	—	Running	1	132
13	39	+26	Steve Park		166	—	Running	1	129
14	33	+19	Kevin Conway		166	—	Running	—	121
15	7	-8	Matt Kenseth		166	—	Running	—	118
16	37	+21	Bobby Labonte		166	—	Running	—	115
17	15	-2	Clint Bowyer		166	—	Running	19	117
18	23	+5	Paul Menard		165	—	Running	—	109
19	41	+22	J.J. Yeley		164	—	Running	—	106
20	10	-10	Greg Biffle		163	—	Running	1	108
21	30	+9	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	159	—	Running	14	105
22	29	+7	Elliott Sadler		159	—	Running	11	102
23	34	+11	Robert Richardson Jr.		159	—	Running	—	94
24	4	-20	Denny Hamlin		158	—	Running	4	96
25	9	-16	Tony Stewart		158	—	Running	7	93
26	14	-12	Ryan Newman		148	—	Running	—	85
27	22	-5	Juan Pablo Montoya		148	—	Running	11	87
28	11	-17	Mark Martin		148	—	Running	5	84
29	16	-13	Joey Logano		148	—	Running	—	76
30	26	-4	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	147	—	Running	1	78
31	2	-29	Jimmie Johnson		147	—	Running	1	75
32	28	-4	Marcos Ambrose		147	—	Running	—	67
33	31	-2	Regan Smith		147	—	Running	—	64
34	38	+4	Travis Kvapil		145	—	Running	—	61
35	18	-17	Martin Truex, Jr.		141	—	DNF	—	58
36	21	-15	A.J. Allmendinger		136	—	DNF	—	55
37	36	-1	David Stremme		135	—	DNF	1	57
38	25	-13	David Ragan		116	—	DNF	—	49
39	17	-22	Jamie McMurray		116	—	DNF	—	46
40	3	-37	Kyle Busch		103	—	DNF	23	48
41	42	+1	Joe Nemechek		38	—	DNF	—	40
42	40	-2	Max Papis		6	—	DNF	—	37
43	43	—	Dave Blaney		4	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
19	J.J. Yeley	25.2	19	+6.2	High Confidence
24	Denny Hamlin	16.0	24	-8.0	Coinflip
29	Joey Logano	20.5	29	-8.5	Moderate
30	Brad Keselowski	16.0	30	-14.0	Coinflip
31	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	31	-12.1	Coinflip
35	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	35	-14.9	Coinflip
36	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	36	-15.9	Moderate
40	Kyle Busch	15.1	40	-24.9	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kevin Harvick: has 58 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 13.9 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 69 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P40 on the day.

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