NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire

New Hampshire Motor Speedway — June 27, 2010

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

301

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on June 27, 2010, leading 8 of 301 laps. Tony Stewart finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Track

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Season

2010

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	10	+9	Jimmie Johnson		301	—	Running	8	190
2	25	+23	Tony Stewart		301	—	Running	2	175
3	3	—	Kurt Busch	Dodge	301	—	Running	8	170
4	16	+12	Jeff Gordon		301	—	Running	—	160
5	24	+19	Kevin Harvick		301	—	Running	—	155
6	5	-1	Ryan Newman		301	—	Running	1	155
7	9	+2	Clint Bowyer		301	—	Running	—	146
8	31	+23	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		301	—	Running	—	142
9	11	+2	Joey Logano		301	—	Running	—	138
10	28	+18	A.J. Allmendinger		301	—	Running	—	134
11	22	+11	Kyle Busch		301	—	Running	46	135
12	17	+5	Jeff Burton		301	—	Running	89	132
13	12	-1	Marcos Ambrose		301	—	Running	—	124
14	20	+6	Denny Hamlin		301	—	Running	—	121
15	6	-9	David Reutimann		301	—	Running	—	118
16	34	+18	Greg Biffle		301	—	Running	—	115
17	33	+16	Matt Kenseth		300	—	Running	—	112
18	27	+9	Jamie McMurray		300	—	Running	—	109
19	30	+11	Elliott Sadler		300	—	Running	1	111
20	19	-1	David Ragan		300	—	Running	—	103
21	4	-17	Mark Martin		300	—	Running	—	100
22	26	+4	Martin Truex, Jr.		300	—	Running	—	97
23	8	-15	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	300	—	Running	—	94
24	29	+5	Reed Sorenson		300	—	Running	—	91
25	21	-4	Carl Edwards		299	—	Running	—	88
26	14	-12	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	299	—	Running	—	85
27	15	-12	Scott Speed		299	—	Running	—	82
28	13	-15	Paul Menard		299	—	Running	—	79
29	23	-6	Casey Mears		298	—	Running	—	76
30	42	+12	Bobby Labonte		297	—	Running	—	73
31	38	+7	David Stremme		294	—	Running	—	70
32	41	+9	Kevin Conway		292	—	Running	—	67
33	18	-15	Regan Smith		292	—	Running	—	64
34	1	-33	Juan Pablo Montoya		280	—	Running	36	66
35	39	+4	David Gilliland		268	—	Running	—	58
36	2	-34	Kasey Kahne		236	—	DNF	110	65
37	40	+3	Andy Lally		142	—	DNF	—	52
38	35	-3	J.J. Yeley		84	—	DNF	—	49
39	7	-32	Joe Nemechek		68	—	DNF	—	46
40	43	+3	Todd Bodine		31	—	DNF	—	43
41	37	-4	Michael McDowell		24	—	DNF	—	40
42	36	-6	Dave Blaney		20	—	DNF	—	37
43	32	-11	Max Papis		11	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	1	+16.7	Moderate
9	Joey Logano	12.1	9	+3.1	Coinflip
10	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	10	+8.3	Moderate
11	Kyle Busch	15.6	11	+4.6	Coinflip
14	Denny Hamlin	6.8	14	-7.2	High Confidence
22	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	22	-8.2	Coinflip
26	Brad Keselowski	12.0	26	-14.0	Coinflip
29	Casey Mears	18.0	29	-11.0	Moderate
38	J.J. Yeley	28.1	38	-9.9	High Confidence
41	Michael McDowell	15.0	41	-26.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 24 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 10.8 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 35 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P14 on the day.

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