Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire

New Hampshire Motor Speedway — September 19, 2010

Clint Bowyer

Winner

300

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Clint Bowyer won the 2010 Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on September 19, 2010, leading 177 of 300 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Jamie McMurray rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Track

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Season

2010

Winner

Clint Bowyer

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	2	+1	Clint Bowyer		300	—	Running	177	195
2	22	+20	Denny Hamlin		300	—	Running	—	170
3	4	+1	Jamie McMurray		300	—	Running	12	170
4	32	+28	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		300	—	Running	—	160
5	27	+22	Kevin Harvick		300	—	Running	—	155
6	17	+11	Jeff Gordon		300	—	Running	2	155
7	7	—	David Reutimann		300	—	Running	—	146
8	24	+16	Ryan Newman		300	—	Running	—	142
9	9	—	Kyle Busch		300	—	Running	—	138
10	15	+5	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	300	—	Running	—	134
11	10	-1	Carl Edwards		300	—	Running	4	135
12	6	-6	A.J. Allmendinger		300	—	Running	—	127
13	12	-1	Kurt Busch	Dodge	300	—	Running	—	124
14	21	+7	Kasey Kahne		300	—	Running	—	121
15	13	-2	Jeff Burton		300	—	Running	—	118
16	5	-11	Juan Pablo Montoya		300	—	Running	—	115
17	14	-3	Greg Biffle		300	—	Running	—	112
18	1	-17	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	300	—	Running	2	114
19	20	+1	Regan Smith		300	—	Running	—	106
20	16	-4	Martin Truex, Jr.		300	—	Running	—	103
21	19	-2	Elliott Sadler		300	—	Running	—	100
22	11	-11	David Ragan		300	—	Running	—	97
23	33	+10	Matt Kenseth		300	—	Running	—	94
24	3	-21	Tony Stewart		300	—	Running	100	96
25	25	—	Jimmie Johnson		299	—	Running	—	88
26	29	+3	Robby Gordon		299	—	Running	2	90
27	37	+10	Reed Sorenson		299	—	Running	—	82
28	8	-20	Paul Menard		299	—	Running	—	79
29	26	-3	Mark Martin		298	—	Running	—	76
30	23	-7	Marcos Ambrose		298	—	Running	—	73
31	30	-1	Dave Blaney		297	—	Running	—	70
32	40	+8	Travis Kvapil		295	—	Running	—	67
33	39	+6	David Gilliland		295	—	Running	—	64
34	41	+7	Tony Raines		295	—	Running	—	61
35	31	-4	Joey Logano		256	—	Running	—	58
36	28	-8	Scott Speed		213	—	DNF	—	55
37	42	+5	Andy Lally		138	—	DNF	—	52
38	18	-20	Casey Mears		93	—	DNF	—	49
39	43	+4	Bobby Labonte		89	—	DNF	—	46
40	35	-5	Joe Nemechek		60	—	DNF	1	48
41	36	-5	Mike Bliss		55	—	DNF	—	40
42	34	-8	Landon Cassill		40	—	DNF	—	37
43	38	-5	Michael McDowell		29	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Denny Hamlin	6.8	2	+4.8	High Confidence
9	Kyle Busch	15.6	9	+6.6	Coinflip
12	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	12	+6.3	Moderate
18	Brad Keselowski	12.0	18	-6.0	Coinflip
20	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	20	-6.2	Coinflip
25	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	25	-7.3	Moderate
35	Joey Logano	12.1	35	-22.9	Coinflip
38	Casey Mears	18.0	38	-20.0	Moderate
43	Michael McDowell	15.0	43	-28.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Clint Bowyer: has 29 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 15.2 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 35 career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with a 10.1 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P2 on the day.

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