Daytona 500

Daytona International Speedway — February 14, 2010

Jamie McMurray

Winner

208

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jamie McMurray won the 2010 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 14, 2010, leading 2 of 208 laps. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finished second; Greg Biffle rounded out the podium. The race featured 21 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, February 14, 2010

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2010

Winner

Jamie McMurray

Leaders

21 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	13	+12	Jamie McMurray		208	—	Running	2	190
2	2	—	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		208	—	Running	4	175
3	23	+20	Greg Biffle		208	—	Running	27	170
4	9	+5	Clint Bowyer		208	—	Running	37	165
5	20	+15	David Reutimann		208	—	Running	—	155
6	14	+8	Martin Truex, Jr.		208	—	Running	3	155
7	5	-2	Kevin Harvick		208	—	Running	41	156
8	24	+16	Matt Kenseth		208	—	Running	—	142
9	27	+18	Carl Edwards		208	—	Running	—	138
10	8	-2	Juan Pablo Montoya		208	—	Running	2	139
11	39	+28	Jeff Burton		208	—	Running	—	130
12	1	-11	Mark Martin		208	—	Running	11	132
13	32	+19	Paul Menard		208	—	Running	—	124
14	7	-7	Kyle Busch		208	—	Running	3	126
15	22	+7	Brian Vickers		208	—	Running	—	118
16	19	+3	David Ragan		208	—	Running	2	120
17	25	+8	Denny Hamlin		208	—	Running	1	117
18	43	+25	Michael Waltrip		208	—	Running	—	109
19	30	+11	Scott Speed		208	—	Running	12	111
20	16	-4	Joey Logano		208	—	Running	1	108
21	42	+21	Bobby Labonte		208	—	Running	—	100
22	6	-16	Tony Stewart		208	—	Running	—	97
23	10	-13	Kurt Busch	Dodge	208	—	Running	33	99
24	12	-12	Elliott Sadler		208	—	Running	9	96
25	38	+13	Boris Said		208	—	Running	1	93
26	21	-5	Jeff Gordon		208	—	Running	2	90
27	40	+13	Bill Elliott		208	—	Running	—	82
28	34	+6	Robby Gordon		207	—	Running	1	84
29	35	+6	Travis Kvapil		205	—	Running	1	81
30	4	-26	Kasey Kahne		202	—	Running	4	78
31	37	+6	Robert Richardson Jr.		202	—	Running	—	70
32	15	-17	A.J. Allmendinger		198	—	Running	11	72
33	29	-4	Michael McDowell		195	—	Running	—	64
34	17	-17	Ryan Newman		193	—	Running	—	61
35	3	-32	Jimmie Johnson		185	—	Running	—	58
36	26	-10	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	174	—	DNF	—	55
37	36	-1	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	160	—	DNF	—	52
38	33	-5	John Andretti		117	—	DNF	—	49
39	11	-28	Regan Smith		90	—	DNF	—	46
40	31	-9	Max Papis		89	—	DNF	—	43
41	18	-23	Marcos Ambrose		79	—	DNF	—	40
42	28	-14	Mike Bliss		76	—	DNF	—	37
43	41	-2	Joe Nemechek		64	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
6	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	6	+14.1	Coinflip
14	Kyle Busch	15.1	14	+1.1	Coinflip
17	Denny Hamlin	16.0	17	-1.0	Coinflip
20	Joey Logano	20.5	20	+0.5	Moderate
32	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	32	-11.9	Moderate
33	Michael McDowell	20.0	33	-13.0	Coinflip
35	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	35	-16.1	Coinflip
36	Brad Keselowski	16.0	36	-20.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jamie McMurray: has 43 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 20.7 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 69 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P14 on the day.
Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P6 vs predicted P20. Track history: 35 starts, 21.0 avg finish.

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