Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami

Homestead-Miami Speedway — November 21, 2010

Carl Edwards

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Carl Edwards won the 2010 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 21, 2010, leading 190 of 267 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Track

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Season

2010

Winner

Carl Edwards

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	2	+1	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	190	195
2	6	+4	Jimmie Johnson		267	—	Running	1	175
3	28	+25	Kevin Harvick		267	—	Running	—	165
4	24	+20	Aric Almirola		267	—	Running	—	160
5	5	—	A.J. Allmendinger		267	—	Running	—	155
6	1	-5	Kasey Kahne		267	—	Running	10	155
7	23	+16	Ryan Newman		267	—	Running	—	146
8	31	+23	Tony Stewart		267	—	Running	1	147
9	13	+4	Matt Kenseth		267	—	Running	1	143
10	27	+17	Greg Biffle		267	—	Running	—	134
11	25	+14	Martin Truex, Jr.		267	—	Running	62	135
12	17	+5	Clint Bowyer		267	—	Running	—	127
13	18	+5	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	124
14	37	+23	Denny Hamlin		267	—	Running	—	121
15	4	-11	Bill Elliott		267	—	Running	—	118
16	8	-8	Mark Martin		267	—	Running	—	115
17	10	-7	Regan Smith		267	—	Running	—	112
18	15	-3	Kurt Busch	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	109
19	16	-3	Paul Menard		267	—	Running	—	106
20	9	-11	David Ragan		267	—	Running	—	103
21	3	-18	Jamie McMurray		267	—	Running	—	100
22	32	+10	Bobby Labonte		267	—	Running	—	97
23	41	+18	Scott Speed		267	—	Running	—	94
24	26	+2	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	91
25	38	+13	David Gilliland		267	—	Running	—	88
26	20	-6	Marcos Ambrose		267	—	Running	—	85
27	22	-5	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		267	—	Running	—	82
28	12	-16	Elliott Sadler		267	—	Running	—	79
29	35	+6	Andy Lally		266	—	Running	—	76
30	42	+12	Kevin Conway		263	—	Running	—	73
31	14	-17	Jeff Burton		253	—	Running	1	75
32	33	+1	Kyle Busch		242	—	Running	—	67
33	34	+1	Casey Mears		233	—	Running	—	64
34	39	+5	Travis Kvapil		231	—	Running	—	61
35	40	+5	Juan Pablo Montoya		231	—	Running	—	58
36	36	—	Dave Blaney		203	—	DNF	—	55
37	11	-26	Jeff Gordon		199	—	DNF	—	52
38	7	-31	David Reutimann		185	—	DNF	—	49
39	19	-20	Joey Logano		166	—	DNF	—	46
40	43	+3	Landon Cassill		35	—	DNF	—	43
41	29	-12	Joe Nemechek		29	—	DNF	—	40
42	21	-21	J.J. Yeley		25	—	DNF	1	42
43	30	-13	Mike Bliss		10	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	2	+17.9	Moderate
5	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	5	+13.3	Moderate
11	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	11	+4.4	Coinflip
13	Brad Keselowski	11.2	13	-1.8	Moderate
14	Denny Hamlin	8.2	14	-5.8	High Confidence
32	Kyle Busch	17.0	32	-15.0	Coinflip
33	Casey Mears	16.9	33	-16.1	Coinflip
39	Joey Logano	14.7	39	-24.3	Coinflip
42	J.J. Yeley	28.8	42	-13.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Carl Edwards: has 20 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.6 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P14 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 23 starts, 15.2 avg finish.

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